PART III

SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC DIMENSION

- Economic, social and cultural causes and consequences of drought and desertification, including linkages to poverty, population pressure, food security, international trading patterns, traditional mechanisms for coping with drought and desertification, and gender/religion aspects
Presented by : Mr. Nessim Ahmed, Resource Economist, Technical Advisory Division, International Fund for Agriculture Development (IFAD)

- Impact of economic policies, including incentives and disincentives to appropriate technologies, particularly land tenure systems and subsidies
Presented by : Mr. Hassan M. Hassan, Senior Environment Specialist, World Bank (WB)

- Role of planning systems and instruments, including integration of anti desertification programs rall development programs
Presented by : Mr. Moustapha Soumare, Technical Advisor, United Nations Sudano Sahelian Office (UNSO)

ECONOMIC, SOCIAL AND CULTURAL CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF DROUGHT AND DESERTIFICATION, INCLUDING LINKAGES TO POVERTY, POPULATION PRESSURE, FOOD SECURITY, INTERNATIONAL TRADING PATTERNS, TRADITIONAL MECHANISMS FOR COPING WITH DROUGHT AND DESERTIFICATION, AND GENDER/RELIGIOUS ASPECTS

Presented by: Mr. Nessim Ahmed, Resources Economist, Technical Advisory Division, International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD)

INTRODUCTION

This paper has been prepared by IFAD in response to a specific request by the Secretariat of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for a Convention to Combat Desertification to contribute to the information sharing segment of the first substantive session of the Committee.

Drought and desertification are socio-economic problems. The causes of desertification are rooted in socio-economic factors, and its consequences are of concern primarily because of their direct or indirect impact on the welfare of human populations. Although the relative importance of socio-economic causes of drought is debatable (see paragraph 102), its consequences have an important socio-economic dimension, which governs both the nature of the drought impact and its magnitude. Significantly, both the causes and consequences of drought and desertification are mediated by the socio-economic context in which they occur.

As discussed in Section II of this paper, desertification - or land degradation in arid, semi arid and dry sub-humid areas, is primarily a function of the land use strategies being pursued by those who depend on dryland resources for their livelihood. These land use strategies, in turn, are conditioned by environmental, socio-cultural and economic factors. It is a central theme of this paper that, among these factors, the particular conditions and characteristics of sporadic and chronic poverty, including food insecurity, act as a fundamental constraint to the adoption of land use practices that are compatible with the opportunities offered by dryland resources.

Section III elaborates upon the broad international, national and local processes which contribute to poverty and unsustainable agriculture both in the commercial sector and among the nomadic and agro-pastoralists, smallholders, women-headed households, landless labourers and displaced persons who inhabit dryland areas. An understanding of these processes is a basic pre- requisite for the eventual definition of strategies to address desertification and mitigate the effects of drought.

These processes overlap and reinforce each other to accelerate further the deepening of poverty, which at the household level manifests itself in material deprivation, isolation, alienation, dependence, lack of participation and freedom of choice, diminished access to natural and man- made capital, vulnerability and insecurity. These conditions lead to a downward spiral of poverty and environmental degradation.

Section IV moves from the general processes that perpetuate poverty to focus on the coping strategies which the rural poor employ in the face of drought and desertification to minimize risks to their food and livelihood security. Coping strategies are examined at the household level, which is the principal locus of natural resource management decisions. These can be broadly categorized as risk minimizing strategies and loss management strategies. These strategies may have positive or negative effects on the productivity and resilience of the natural resource base. The strategies are continuously being adapted including to those effects which are induced by the coping strategies themselves. It is these strategies that must be influenced, if desertification is to be arrested or reversed.

The consequences of drought and desertification are discussed in the next section. Consequences at the local level -- impaired food security, increased poverty and lowered environmental resilience -- besides being important in themselves, lead to further desertification. Consequences at the national and global levels are also significant and include national food insecurity, strain on government budgets, burden on the absorptive capacity of urban areas, environmental refugees and political instability, increased costs of relief programmes and loss of important biodiversity.

DRYLANDS AND DESERTIFICATION: POVERTY AND ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION

Drylands can be defined as hyper-arid, arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid zones. They comprise more than 40% of the land surface of the planet. 66% of Africa, 46% of Asia and 31% of Latin America lie in dryland areas.

Given the extent of dryland areas, it is difficult to make generalizations on socio-economic status and trends in these areas. However, it is significant that semi-arid and arid areas contain over half of the developing world's rural poor, and the proportion is likely to be increasing.

In dryland areas in developing countries, complex and diversified livelihood systems exist. However, three principal rural livelihood systems can be said to dominate: cultivation; agropastoralism; and transhumant pastoralism.

Each of these systems is evolving over time to match the opportunities and constraints offered by dryland resources and the changing socio-economic context. These systems respond to endogenous and exogenous processes which govern the nature of the relationship between livelihood strategies and the natural resource base.

Under certain conditions, these systems can be sustainable and productive, as in the case of some still viable traditional systems. In other cases, successful transitions are taking place such as the shift towards crop/livestock integration and the diversification into off-farm employment. In many areas, however, unsustainable land use practices are being adopted and once sustainable systems are breaking down.

Desertification is a cumulative outcome of unsustainable land use practices. These can be said to include at least the following broad categories:

i. expansion of rainfed cultivation onto unsuitable lands;

ii. inappropriate intensification, soil mining and shortening of fallows;

iii. overgrazing strategies;

iv. groundwater mining; and

v. uncontrolled harvesting of biomass.

The adoption of these practices by those who depend on dryland resources for their livelihood is usually a rational response to incentives and constraints. It is rational in the strict sense that their adoption optimizes household benefits subject to constraining factors and prevailing incentive structures. The basic constraining factors and incentives, which lead to a divergence between private and social accounting, are determined by important environmental, socio-cultural and economic processes which can lie wholly or partly outside the direct control of those involved.

These determining processes can be categorized as follows:

i. International Policy Processes;

ii. National Policy Processes;

ii. Processes Caused by Institutional Issues

- tenurial ambiguities;

- technology systems;

- infrastructure and government support services;

- social services;

iv. Marginalization of Important Groups

- gender biases;

- ethnic biases;

v. Demographic Processes

- population growth;

- migration;

vi. Processes Caused by External Shocks

- drought and natural disasters;

- civil strife and political conflicts.

Although these processes, discussed in more detail below, serve to create conditions which promote unsustainable land use among all social strata in dryland development, they particularly constrain the ability of poor groups, who constitute a major proportion of the population in dryland areas, to manage resources sustainably.

Furthermore, the processes reinforce each other to deepen poverty, especially among the most disadvantaged groups. The particular conditions and characteristics of transitory and chronic poverty act as additional factors in promoting the adoption of unsustainable short term survival strategies. They manifest themselves at the household level through:

i. material deprivation;

ii. diminished access to natural and man-made capital;

iii. isolation;

iv. alienation;

v. dependence;

vi. lack of participation and freedom of choice;

vii. vulnerability and insecurity; and

viii. short time horizons.

It is also these conditions, and the direct dependence of the poor on the productivity of natural resources, that makes them especially vulnerable to environmental degradation and drought. Thus, the poor can be seen as both agents and victims of environmental degradation, and this is reflected in the coping strategies they adopt.

The major determinants of household coping strategies in dryland areas therefore consist of the following (a) broad socio-economic processes which constrain all economic agents in dryland areas, but which both contribute to poverty and affect particularly the poor; (b) the intrinsic conditions and characteristics of poverty itself; and (c) environmental degradation, drought and stochastic shocks.

The synergistic effect of these factors on poor households, and groups of households, is that they are often forced to make trade-offs between immediate household food requirements and environmental sustainability in production and consumption. Their negligible capital assets, ill- defined or non-existent property rights, limited access to financial services and markets, inadequate safety nets in time of stress, and lack of participatory mechanisms can result in coping strategies that rely on the drawing down of the only capital available to them - natural resources. The resulting downward spiral of poverty and environmental degradation, and its cumulative impact across large areas, must be considered one of the most important causes and consequences of drought and desertification.

Bearing in mind that poverty is both an underlying and proximate cause of dryland degradation, it is thus of crucial importance to understand the international, national and local processes which not only contribute to poverty and environmental degradation, but also constrain the ability of dryland populations, particularly the poorest, in effecting a transition to sustainable agriculture. These are discussed in more detail in the following sections.

SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROCESSES IN POVERTY AND RESOURCE DEGRADATION IN DRYLAND AREAS

Socioeconomic processes can be both causes and consequences of drought and desertification. The processes that govern the sustainability of land use in dryland areas form a complex web of interactions linking international, national and local levels. This explains in part the intractable nature of the problem. It indicates that solutions to the desertification problematique require action on a number of fronts to influence households decisions with regard to investments in productivity and conservation on farm, as well as off-farm activities.

The significance of each of the processes will vary from country to country. However, several processes seem to be particularly important in most countries suffering from drought and desertification. These include international policy processes, national policy processes, institutional processes, demographic processes and gender biases.

International Processes

The international economic environment can accentuate many of the processes which lead to unsustainable agriculture and poverty in dryland areas. Declining prices for agricultural commodities, trade relations, debt crises and exchange rate movements have direct and indirect effects on household resource management decisions. Among these effects, the constraining influence of international processes on national policy and institutional issues are of particular significance.

Declining Commodity Prices

Agricultural commodity prices are declining in real terms, and this trend is likely to continue. Between 1980 and 1988 the real prices of non-fuel commodities from developing countries declined by 40%. The terms of trade index for Sub-Saharan Africa dropped from 100 in 1984 to 72 in 1989. The reasons for this decline are complex, but involve inelasticities of demand for foodstuffs in the developed world, subsidization of producers in developed countries, protectionism, lack of diversification, slow growth of income in developing countries, and increased production in some countries due to technological innovation.

Many developing countries suffering from drought and desertification are dependent on one or a few commodity exports for a major share of their export incomes. This is particularly the case in Africa, which is increasingly dependent on traditional commodity exports. In order to maintain incomes in the face of falling prices for such commodities, countries are increasing production. In fact, the total value of food exports from developing regions has risen since 1970, primarily because of increases in volume exported.

Land under export crops is expanded, and this can result in excessive use of water and other inputs, as well as soil "mining". The problems can be accentuated by emphasis on export-led growth models, in the context of much needed structural adjustment programmes. The result of these approaches can be to encourage countries to increase exports of the same commodity at the same time, adding to the downward pressure on prices. Ultimately this might undermine structural adjustment programmes.

Falling commodity prices have a second, and more direct effect on the farmers who produce them. Lower incomes for export crops translate into reduced opportunities for investment by farmers and increases their vulnerability. Fluctuations in commodity prices can have an additional destabilizing effect on the livelihoods of small producers.

The decline in commodity prices also has significant general effects on the economies of many countries which depend on commodity exports. By lowering export earnings the opportunity for public and private investment in-country is reduced. Furthermore, marginal areas, where financial rates of return to investment are low and cost recovery for government interventions minimal, may suffer disproportionately from this effect. The debt crisis, and diminishing ODA flows, exacerbate this problem.

The decline of commodity prices is projected to continue for most items. Commodity agreements continue to collapse, and multilateral funding arrangements tend to have very limited effectiveness. With advances in technology, demand for many traditional agricultural commodities is likely to fall and competition to increase. Biotechnology for example may allow some high-value products to be synthesized industrially, removing the demand for the commodity altogether. In other cases, biotechnology may allow substitution of one agricultural product for another. For example, it may be possible to convert low value vegetable oils into more expensive products which are now obtained from specific crops, introducing competition between the vegetable oil sectors.

While falling commodity prices make reliance on a few export products an increasingly unattractive proposition, options for diversification are often constrained by protectionist trade polices in developed countries and by limitations on the transfer of technology.

Barriers to International Trade

Limited access to the potentially large markets of industrialized countries imposes a major limitation on the range of options open to developing countries to rationalize the use of drylands, and increase the income derived from export crops. Sudden impositions of import restrictions can be the most damaging. Adding value through processing of agricultural products could be an attractive way of increasing income derived from fragile environments without adding to pressure on natural resources. However, progressive escalation of tariffs on processed products can provide strong disincentives to this approach.

Reluctance to reduce agricultural subsidies and import barriers is a major constraint, and has jeopardized the Uruguay Round of the General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs. Although agricultural trade liberalization may have a positive influence, partly through induced innovation, it should also be noted that liberalization would reduce food supplies and increase prices in the short term, which may have variable effects on producers and consumers in dryland areas. The final distributive outcome would depend on comparative advantages in land, labour and climate.

Official Development Assistance

Official development assistance (ODA) to regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa is declining due to recession in the donor countries, competing demands for aid from economies in transition and aid fatigue. The recent debt crises have led to a net transfer of resources out of some of the poorest countries.

Bilateral and multilateral assistance programmes have historically suffered from biases against agriculture and natural resource management. The proportion of ODA going to the agricultural sector has been declining in real terms, and this trend is likely to continue as other sectors, including urban development, increase their claims. For agricultural production (and food aid) OECD Development Assistance Committee donor commitments fell from an average of 20.9% of the total in 1975/76 to 15.2% in 1988/89. World Bank commitments for concessional and non- concessional funding of agriculture and rural development also fell, from 30.2% during the period 1976/80 to 20.5% during 1986/90 and 16.3% in financial year 1991.

This declining trend, combined with a reluctance on the part of multilateral financing institutions to finance development in marginal areas, is constraining the ability of countries to assist rural populations, especially those in dryland areas, to effect a transition to sustainable agriculture.

Transfer of Technology

The availability of suitable technologies for the sustainable development of drylands is often lacking. Potentially suitable technologies include environmental monitoring systems, improved crop varieties, and safe and effective pesticides and other methods for control of pests including integrated pest management.

In many cases, suitable technologies are not available because of problems in the transfer of technology. A number of barriers to technology transfer might exist.

Firstly, potential developers or exporters of technology frequently have only very poor information about the technology needs of the potential client. Similarly information available to potential clients is often limited. Frequently, much relevant technology is available in the public domain, but its availability is unknown to developing countries.

Secondly, the costs of technologies might be prohibitively high, particularly given the poverty of the potential target groups. High transport and transaction costs add to this problem. One reason for the high cost of some technologies is the royalty charge associated with intellectual property rights (IPRs) where these apply. For countries which do recognize IPRs, costs of the technology might be high, and this high cost might be a barrier to technology transfer. On the other hand, technology developers may be reluctant to supply technologies to countries which do not respect IPRs.

Transfer of technology between developing countries should offer promising solutions since many developing countries experience similar technical, institutional and economic problems. However, South-South scientific, technical and commercial links tend to be poorly developed, with many developing countries having closer links to the former colonial powers than to their regional neighbours or to developing countries in other continents.

National Policy Processes

Constrained by the international processes discussed above, which can leave governments with little room to manoeuvre, national policy frameworks do not always offer an enabling environment for investment in sustainable dryland development. Macro-economic distortions, and sometimes the liberalization programmes designed to remove these, can themselves unleash processes that encourage unsustainable agriculture in dryland areas and deepen poverty. Even where policies do not actively deter investment in productivity or conservation, they may fail to provide incentives for households to make such investments through their effects on relative prices, including implicit prices. They may also inhibit household capacity to do so, through their effects on institutional support mechanisms, such as financial services and research and extension.

National macro-economic policies can reflect an urban-rural bias, which preempt resource flows to rural areas. In the rural sector, there is a further bias against marginal areas, which can accentuate the effect of other processes that lead to poverty and environmental degradation. National policy biases may bolster institutional rigidities, accentuate the dualistic process, accelerate population growth and degradation of the environment, and reinforce the marginalization of important groups.

Macro-Economic Policy

In order to address macro-economic distortions and redress significant government deficits as well as imbalances in the external account, many countries affected by drought and desertification have adopted structural adjustment programmes. The effects of such programmes on the sustainability of agriculture and rural livelihoods is not fully understood and may be country specific. The removal of irrational distortions, by improving allocative efficiency and allowing prices to reflect resource scarcity, can improve resource management, but it may also have negative effects, especially when stabilization policies and safety nets are not pursued. However, in the short term at least, liberalization policies can adversely affect the ability of governments to invest in dryland areas, reinforcing existing biases. This can inhibit inter alia the development and maintenance of infrastructure, agricultural support, and social services in these areas, the importance of which is discussed later.

Agricultural Policy

Inappropriate sectoral agricultural policies may fail to take into account intersectoral, intrasectoral and inter-regional linkages. These include pricing policies favouring expansion of cereal production into marginal areas, subsidized capital to expand uneconomic commercial operations, subsidies for the adoption of imported machinery or of inappropriate technologies, and excessive transfer of income out of the agricultural sector (both directly through taxes and depressed procurement prices, and indirectly through overvalued exchange rates).

Distortionary pricing polices may favour drought sensitive crops. For example, government policies aimed at generating national food surpluses to ensure a consistent flow to urban consumers can exacerbate the effects of climatic risks. In some countries, for instance, Governments have sought to influence the prices and distribution of maize through highly controlled and centralized maize marketing systems. Such marketing distortions led to the displacement of drought-tolerant crops such as sorghum and millet with maize in areas which were not agro-ecologically suited for maize production. Recurrent crop failures have had significant effects on the environment (an increased dependency on resource mining to compensate for production shortfalls) and the fiscal resources of the government (i.e. greater demand for food transfers).

A bias towards export crops can displace resources devoted to food production and may undermine the food security of the rural poor. This may force them into unsustainable coping strategies which lead to environmental degradation and also might lead to misuse and over use of natural resources for export crops. At the same time, policies for national food security may, when not conceived in terms of the need to address low effective demand, achieve production expansion in the commercial sector without improving household food security.

Low public investment in rural infrastructure and agricultural research and extension, and the resulting inadequate access to inputs, services and markets can further undermine prospects for sustainable development in dryland areas. In addition, this hinders the generation of off-farm employment opportunities, which in turn limits the range of opportunities available for sustainable livelihoods.

Constraints in addressing the need for agrarian reform constitute another fundamental issue. The issue of land distribution is discussed later on, in the context of institutional issues.

Domestic Resource Generation

The depressing effect of national and sectoral distortions on domestic resource generation for sustainable agriculture is clearly important. Policy distortions, and the institutional rigidities linked to these which cause market failure, may inhibit rural households in generating surplus for savings and investment, or in accumulating productive assets.

Social Policies

Policies to engineer social change, either influenced by biases such as ethnic biases or conceived to meet social objectives, can also promote land degradation. In Tanzania, especially in the dry central and northern regions, villagization programmes has led to the depletion of resources around settlements while leaving distant lands uncultivated.

The sedentarization of nomadic populations is often a government policy. In villages, nomadic pastoralists may be more easily regulated, taxed, educated and given proper health care. But sedentarization may lead to widespread overgrazing around new settlements.

Processes Related to Institutional Issues

International and national processes can influence the institutional matrix for sustainable agriculture. Institutional rigidities and weaknesses can have a profound effect on natural resource management trends through inter alia their effect on the time horizon of dryland households. Market failure resulting from ill-defined property rights for water, trees and land, imperfections in capital markets, underdeveloped insurance markets for risk, and the absence of strong institutions to internalise externalities warrant mention in this regard.

Tenure

Tenurial regimes form a continuum encompassing private, communal, and open access resources. The nature of tenurial arrangements are prominent factors in the sustainability of land use patterns.

The poverty/environmental degradation link is accentuated by inequitable distribution of land, by the transformation of communal lands into de facto open access resources through nationalization, and by ambiguities and uncertainties in usufruct rights of land, water and trees.

Dualistic Patterns. Many countries suffer from a poverty process whereby colonial production patterns persist. The best land is under large primarily export-orientated farms. Dualistic patterns are particularly important in Latin America and Northern Africa, but are also important in Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. In southern Africa, for example, large-scale commercial producers generally own or manage areas of good soil, with more abundant rainfall, and have good infrastructure.

This tends to force a relatively large number of poor farmers to make a living on the worst lands, often leading to their over-exploitation and degradation. At the same time, this dualistic process can also lead to degradation of the better lands too, particularly in arid or semi-arid areas. This has happened for example in the case of large scale irrigation schemes of the Sudan. Subsidized investment in these areas has led to inappropriate irrigation schemes and mechanization which have resulted in salinization and eventual desertification. It has also resulted in a loss of seasonal grazing and traditional stock routes for pastoralists.

Insecure Land Tenure. Even where farmers have access to the land, unless they have unambiguous long-term ownership or user rights they are unlikely to have the incentives to invest in the long term maintenance of land resources. Ill-defined or non-existent property rights are strongly implicated in short planning horizons.

Common Property Resources (CPRs). Drylands are characterized by a far greater degree of communal management of land than the more humid areas. Particularly for rangelands, CPRs are coming under increased pressure by the encroachment of other land use systems. In many cases, CPRs have been nationalized, especially when governments have not recognized traditional regimes, thus transforming the CPR areas into de facto open access areas. A relatively new trend is the reverting of nationalized CPRs to community control, under which the more disadvantaged groups might be excluded by more powerful groups.

The nature and extent of the availability of common property resources will have a strong influence on the part of rural households to buffer seasonal food shortages. The exploitation of these resources is particularly important for resource poor farmers for meeting household food security needs. Common property resources provide poor households with resources to meet basic subsistence needs for housing, fuel, food supplements as well as income generating activities.

CPRs are relied upon heavily during times of stress. As people become more vulnerable to food insecurity, their dependency on these resources increases. For example, in 1985-1986, people living in Mali in the Delta area of Region V met 24% of their food needs and 41% of their food purchases from the gathering of resources obtained in the local CPRs. As dependence on these traditional safety nets increases, conflicts often arise over access to these resources, and degradation of the resource base usually intensifies as traditional management systems are eroded. Strategies that may promote degradation include cutting trees to make charcoal, over-harvesting wild foods, overgrazing grasslands, and increasing cultivation in marginal areas.

The terms upon which access to CPRs is gained (excludibility regimes) is central to the potential for the particular resources to enhance the food security of a particular group of producers. Because traditional CPR management regimes are often extremely hierarchical, the poorest groups are not offered the opportunity to participate in their use. In many cases, households may be excluded from gaining access to these resources because they do not have traditional access rights, or because the state restricts access, or because privatization has taken place.

Other Institutional Issues

As stated earlier, the nature of institutional processes are affected by national and international policy processes, and the various biases such a gender, ethnic or urban. The following are considered to be of particular significance in dryland areas.

Rural Financial Services and Credit. The rural poor generally have limited access to financial services. This is partly due to the lack of institutional development in marginal areas, and partly due to the reluctance of conventional credit agencies to lend to people, who by definition, have little land or other assets to put up as collateral and for whom transaction costs are too high. In these circumstances, the rural poor are often forced to deal with moneylenders at high interest rates. The lack of credit, or its availability only at very high interest rates, accentuates the short-term planning horizons of the rural poor caused by other factors such as lack of secure tenure. This renders activities which reduce desertification but have only a relatively long-term pay off -- such as soil and water conservation activities -- economically unattractive from the household perspective. The absence of savings opportunities is also a constraint. It can lead, for example, to overcapitalization in the form of livestock, leading to imbalances in rangeland resources.

Technology Systems. For many dryland areas subject to drought and desertification few technological packages are available to increase production sustainably. An especially important issue is the failure to seize opportunities presented by traditional technologies. This is particularly important because the risks associated with rainfall constrain the scope for major increases in productivity from conventional crop production research. High-input varietal technology is unlikely to be adopted because yield increases won't cover the increased costs of inputs. Biases of research and technical progress towards better watered lands and commercial products exacerbate this problem.

A particularly important reason for the increasing vulnerability of the poor in dryland areas, has been the much slower progress in the improvement of drought resistant traditional crops such as millet and sorghum, than in the improvement of maize. Few countries conduct research on millet and where they do, as in India, the results are not readily transferable to dryland areas with high soil temperatures, such as those found in the Niger.

Dominant systems of technology development tend to be unsuited to solving the problems of these areas and in particular are not geared towards the on-farm realities of resource poor farming. An example is the focus on monoculture production practices, as opposed to millet and cowpea intercropping.

This is due partly to the real or perceived low returns to agriculture research for dryland areas, to failure to regard research as a long term process requiring sustained financing, and inter alia, to poor identification of the real needs of the rural poor and weak linkages between research and extension. The absence of participatory "client demand" approaches to technology development and adaptation is a specific constraint in this regard.

There is also far too little emphasis on meeting the communal resource management requirements of intermediate structures such as village communities.

Infrastructure and supply channels. Provision of roads and other communication infrastructure is usually poor in dryland areas. This results in limited access to seeds of improved varieties, fertilizers, pesticides and other inputs. Even where these are physically available in the region, the high prices due to transport and other costs renders them effectively unavailable to the rural poor. Lack of infrastructure inhibits the development of markets, which can be considered a sine qua non of development.

Markets. Markets are usually poorly developed in marginal dryland areas. This restricts factor and goods movements and limits options for income generation from cash crops, or from off-farm enterprises . It also hampers the provision of agricultural inputs, machinery parts and other goods and services required from outside the rural areas. Lack of integration of rural economies with urban markets is particularly significant since the potential demand for goods and services in poor rural areas is restricted in the short run due to their very poverty.

Labour markets. Poor integration of rural and urban labour markets is a major issue. Labour markets are evolving rapidly in many agrarian economies due to large-scale changes in supply and demand. Between 1970 and 1985 the rural population of developing countries rose by 27%. Not all of this increase can be accommodated for by off-farm employment or by rural to urban migration, resulting in increased pressures on agricultural land and a large pool of underemployed or unemployed in rural areas. As a result of structural rigidities, labour contracts tend to be unfavourable to the rural worker.

Educational, health and other services. Lack of provision of adequate health services, basic education, water and sanitation, immunization and childcare services affects the productivity, income and ultimately the nutritional status of rural households, increasing their vulnerability to recurrent drought. Lack of schooling facilities reduces the opportunity for parents to invest in quality rather than quantity. Absence of electrification and water supplies, may also act as an incentive to produce children to meet household water and energy needs. These contribute to the "population processes" of poverty and environmental degradation discussed later.

Local institutions and Participatory Mechanisms. Strong and effective local institutions are a major pre-requisite for sustainable dryland development. The absence of effective grassroots organizations constrains the effective management of community resources and the resolution of conflicts in their use. Most importantly, their absence inhibits participatory development and the devolution of decision-making to the community level.

In many dryland areas, effective government institutions are lacking, and informal institutions at the village or community level are weak or are not recognized by administrative authorities. Traditional institutions for natural resource management are collapsing under changing circumstances. This is particularly significant in the case of management of common property resources, which are so widespread in dryland areas.

Where institutions are functioning, the poor, especially women, are often marginalized and do not have a voice in decisions that affect them. The result is that the needs of the most vulnerable groups may not be catered to.

Relief food supplies. Poor infrastructure hampers the supply of relief food supplies when they are needed. Perhaps even more significantly, systems for the monitoring of the vulnerability of the rural poor and for the advanced warning of the need for relief food supplies are poorly developed. This can mean that the poor are forced to adopt coping strategies which lead to resource degradation in cases where this could be averted by the provision of more sensitive assessments of the state of household food security.

Cost Recovery and Taxation. The absence of functioning taxation systems and mechanisms for cost recovery constrain the ability of governments to provide the conditions, such as infrastructure and services, for investment in dryland areas.

GENDER AND ETHNIC BIASES

Gender

Poor rural women who live under the same harsh conditions as their male counterparts suffer from cultural and policy biases which undervalue their contribution to development and prevent them and their families from benefiting from the productivity of their labour. Since rural women play a key role in farm and non-farm activities, particularly in dryland areas, these biases can lead to serious misallocation of household resources and deterioration of the natural resource base.

Women tend to be more vulnerable to the effects of environmental degradation than men because they are often involved in harvesting common property resources such as wood and water. Since women usually make a greater contribution to household food security than men, a decline in women's access to resources may have a significant impact on the consumption status of the household. Environmental degradation implies further burdens and responsibilities, which are not compensated for by increased power.

Even though many developing countries have legally affirmed women's basic right to own land, actual female control of land is practically non-existent. Administrative, economic and cultural constraints combine to deny most rural women both ownership and effective control. Women's customary or de facto rights over land can sometimes be threatened by agrarian reform programmes and through development projects.

Lack of ownership of land as collateral, added to cultural and institutional biases against women make it very difficult for women to have access to credit. Women's lack of legal rights to the land they cultivate also often circumscribes their membership to farmers' organizations and hence their access to inputs and services.

Women's crops and livestock activities and especially needs for processing and storage have received relatively little attention in agricultural research and development programmes. Women farmers are rarely reached by extension services. Furthermore, these rarely have female extension agents when these are necessary for cultural reasons.

In many cases, an obstacle for rural women in raising production above the family's subsistence needs is a lack of marketing outlets. Women farmers and traders who market their own produce commonly face barriers related to licensing requirements and other regulations which put them at a disadvantage in competition with men. Women traders are also constrained by insufficient working capital.

The bias against girls in education is one of the fundamental reasons that contribute to maintaining women in a disadvantaged position. Illiteracy rates are much higher for women than for men. This compromises their access to other services -- both commercial and social -- including safe and adequate family planning methods. Since women play a major role in educating their children, this lack of access to formal education by female children, has a multiplier effect on the next generation.

Ethnic Biases and the Marginalization of Indigenous Groups

Indigenous peoples have developed livelihood systems which were well-adapted to the harsh conditions in which they lived. However, their traditional ways of life are now coming under threat, disturbing the delicate balance of natural resource use. Such marginalized groups include the Amerindian populations of south and central America, the nomadic pastoralists of the Near East and north Africa and of southern Africa, the tribal and minority populations of India, Bangladesh, The Philippines, Thailand and elsewhere, and the hunter-gatherer "bushmen" of the Kalahari Desert.

Encroachment of other groups into the traditional territories of ethnic groups can upset the previous state of equilibrium of resource use. In the Kalahari Desert of Botswana for example, the Basarwa hunter-gatherers' way of life which has existed over thousands of years, has in the last 100 years, been threaten by the invasion of other groups into their territory.

The encroachment of other livelihood systems into the area traditionally managed by The Bedouin community of the Near East and North Africa and other nomadic communities of Africa provides another example. These nomadic groups stand out as the least touched by development. They travel large distances with their herds of livestock in conditions which would have defeated most other groups. They have done so by spreading their risks, investing in different species of livestock. This equilibrium is now being disrupted. Grazing land has diminished due to a considerable increase in cultivated areas.

In other cases problems arise from the breakdown of traditional systems of management. For example, in the Yemen common property resources are traditionally controlled by the hema system, a mutual agreement between pastoralists to protect the resource base involving: seasonal restrictions on grazing and cutting of trees; specification of the kinds and numbers of animals; reservation of areas for non-damaging activities such as bee-keeping; and areas set aside for forest trees. With the gradual expansion of government authority into the domain of tribal control, the hema system is breaking down. No other controls were introduced in its place and so overstocking has been the result.

The permanent settlement of nomadic populations is a third process which can lead to degradation of the natural resource base. Permanent settlement may be an explicit or implicit policy of government in some countries, or simply a result of "modernization". Nomadic peoples frequently occupy areas which cannot support permanent agriculture because of dry conditions or meagre soils; permanent settlement may result in serious environmental problems.

DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES

Population Growth

It is clear that rapid population growth leads to increased pressure on the land and other resources. As in most developing countries, populations are growing rapidly in those suffering from drought and desertification. In four-fifths of these countries, population growth rates exceed 2% per annum, and in a third of them it exceeds 3%. In the Sudano-Sahelian region, population increased by almost a quarter between 1977 and 1984. For Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole, population growth rates will outstrip even the most optimistic predictions for economic growth. The resulting impoverishment will be most pronounced in rural areas.

Population growth is also a function of poverty and environmental degradation. Typically, in developing countries, households with seven or more members, or with child/adult ratios 50% or more above national averages, are at least twice as likely to be poor or ultra poor as other households. Environmental degradation may increase the incentive to have large families, as more household time is required to harvest common property goods and services.

Population growth tends to lead to desertification when the only way to increase food production to meet household needs is through expanding cultivation to marginal lands. Although large tracts of uncultivated land exist in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, the land is largely marginal both in soils and rainfall. Furthermore, expansion of agriculture into these lands would result in conflicts with biodiversity conservation and other ecological objectives.

Growing population, coupled with particular laws of inheritance, leads to fragmentation of landholdings and declining cropland per caput. Under current projections, the current global average cropland per caput will decline from 0.28 hectares to 0.17 hectares by 2025.

The population process leads to increased marginalization which has a profound impact on the environment as weaker members of the community are pushed out onto the ecologically fragile areas. This has occurred in the upland areas of East Africa, and the rangelands of Angola, Botswana, Somalia and the Sudan.

High population growth rates tend to be more problematic than high population density per se. The most severe problems occur when population growth rates are high in resource-poor areas.

The skewed age structure which results from high population growth rates, accentuated by migration of male workers can lead to paradoxical outcomes. High population growth rates can be associated with shortages of labour. Increases in the dependency ratio and an imbalance of consumption and production are the effects.

Migration Processes

Growing population is an additional pressure which accentuates the existing economic incentives for rural to urban migration, as male workers leave the land in search for employment in the towns. This can decrease environmental degradation through reduced pressure on the land and through the investment of remittances sent home into productive assets. However, since inequality tends to be lower in dryland areas than in more humid lands, drylands tend to expel fewer migrants.

There may be negative effects associated with migration itself. As mentioned earlier, the selective migration of more productive members of the household can lead to labour shortages and lack of management of natural resources. In extreme circumstances, land may be abandoned. Terraces and other labour-intensive anti-erosion structures may not be properly maintained, and absence of control over grazing may result in overgrazing of pastures. Estimates from an IFAD project in Algeria suggest that up to 80% of downstream siltation results from erosion on abandoned land.

Distress migration in response to severe food shortages may have qualitatively and quantitatively different effects on desertification. Ever-increasing numbers of refugees from the zones where degradation is taking place results in concentrations of people in areas that traditionally have been thinly populated. This can exert unsustainable pressures on natural resources, systems of their management, and other social structures in the recipient area.

STOCHASTIC SHOCKS AND CIVIL STRIFE

Civil Strife and Political Conflicts

Political and civil strife is occurring in a number of countries affected by drought and desertification, exacerbating other negative effects. The costs to the rural poor can be very significant. Civil strife and internal political fragmentation lead to damage of land, roads and other infrastructure and disruption of institutions. Educational, health and research and extension services may be seriously affected, especially when their functioning depend upon the availability of skilled personnel from towns. Supply routes and markets for agricultural inputs and products may be disrupted. National and foreign-funded relief and development programmes may be suspended.

Labour shortages result if local people are called upon to participate in the conflict. Such armies, whether formal or informal, represent a substantial additional drain on local resources. Local systems of natural resource management and other local institutions may break down.

Natural Disasters

Natural disasters have been increasing in frequency and intensity over the past decades. It estimated that 23 million people were affected by drought in 1990/91. The cost of drought relief in Africa alone was in the range of five to eight billion US Dollars in the last decade.

The reasons for the recent increase in the frequency of droughts are not understood. It is not known whether this increase is part of a longer term trend or whether it is part of a cyclical or random process. It is possible that the increased frequency of drought is a result of climate change associated with global warming due to excessive levels of carbon dioxide and other "greenhouse gases" in the atmosphere, primarily as a result of high energy use in industrialized countries. It is also possible that desertification itself is a cause of climatic disorder due to loss of vegetative cover and release of soil carbon.

While drought itself -- as a meteorological phenomenon -- might be considered to be primarily a natural event, its impact, including whether or not it leads to desertification, depend on socioeconomic factors. Environmental degradation following drought is often mediated through a self reinforcing link between poverty and resource degradation. The rural poor are the most vulnerable to drought and natural disasters, and each episode of drought lowers the resilience of the livelihood systems of the rural poor and of the natural resource base on which they depend.

The lack of a coherent framework in most drought prone countries for mitigating the effects of drought, combined with the failure to place disaster mitigation within a rural development perspective, is probably a major contributor to desertification and poverty. Improved techniques, such as drought vulnerability mapping, are required for advance identification of the impacts of drought and desertification on the rural poor.

Besides drought, other natural disasters can destabilize the livelihood systems of rural people or directly lead to desertification. The recent infestation of screwworm in North Africa and the recurrent epidemics of desert locust attacks throughout dryland areas of the continent are notable examples. Other pest epidemics and flash floods can also have serious consequences.

TRADITIONAL COPING STRATEGIES, VULNERABILITY AND RESILIENCE

The processes discussed in Section III affect the household as a decision-making unit. Their effects on drought and desertification are mediated through household coping strategies. These responses -- aimed at minimizing risks to the livelihood and food security -- may have positive or negative effects on the natural resource base.

To weather transitory disturbances to their livelihoods, people in drought-prone areas have developed self insurance coping strategies to minimize risks to their household food and livelihood security. Examples of such strategies are dispersed grazing, changes in cropping and planting practices, migration to towns in search of urban employment, increased petty commodity production, collection of wild foods, use of inter-household transfers and loans, use of credit from merchants and money lenders, migration to other rural areas for employment, rationing of current food consumption, sale of possessions (e.g. jewellery), sale of firewood and charcoal, consumption of food distributed through relief programs, sale of productive assets, breakup of the household, and distress migration.

In general, these coping strategies are forward looking in the sense that they are pursued by households to ensure future income generating capacity (i.e. livelihood) rather than simply maintaining current levels of food consumption. However, the impact of these strategies on the environment can be positive or negative depending upon the type of strategy employed.

Coping strategies will vary by region, community, social class, ethnic group, household, gender, age, and season. The types of strategies employed by households also will vary depending upon the severity and duration of the potentially disruptive conditions. Traditional methods of handling risk can be divided into routine risk-minimizing strategies and loss management strategies.

Types of Coping Strategies Employed

Risk-minimizing strategies are adjustments to production and resource use before and during a production season. These involve such practices as diversification of resources and enterprises, and adjustments within cropping systems. Crop-centred diversification can include choice of crops with varying maturation periods, different sensitivities to environmental fluctuations, and flexible end use products. Farmers will also reduce production risks by exploiting vertical, horizontal and temporal dimensions of the natural resource base. Vertical adjustments involve planting at different elevations in a topographical sequence. Spatial risk adjustments include planting in different micro-environments or intercropping. Temporal risk adjustments involve staggering planting times. Adjustments may also include extension of farming into marginal areas or overuse of a particular plot; practices that can have a destructive effect on the natural environment. Livestock risk minimizing strategies could involve changing the animal mix (e.g. shifting from cattle to goats), or changing the grazing patterns (e.g. dispersed grazing).

Loss management strategies include farmers' responses to lower-than-expected crop production caused by natural hazards. Reductions in crop production can be compensated for through non-farm income, the sale of assets, and reciprocal obligations among households. Over- exploitation of certain resources (forest reserves for example) for market sale may also be a loss management strategy.

In extreme circumstances the rural poor may also have to rely on credit from moneylenders, sell productive assets, reduce food consumption to below adequate levels, and engage in distressed migration.

It is important therefore to distinguish between the two forms of assets which farmers have at their disposal. Liquid assets which represent stores of value for disposal acquired in non-crisis years are drawn upon in crises situations. These may include small livestock or personal possession such as jewellery. A second set of assets are those which play a key role in generating income such as livestock and agricultural tools.

Trends in Coping Strategies Employed

Recent studies have found that the range of coping strategies pursued by farm families in drought-prone areas may be changing over time. Three major trends appear to be developing. First, risk- minimizing agricultural strategies appear to be narrowing in some locations (e.g. Kenya), as repeated sales and reacquisition have depleted domestic and productive asset levels. In these areas, agricultural coping strategies are being replaced by strategies that diversify income sources through off-farm employment and nonagricultural production. In an attempt to generate income to secure market purchases, many erosive strategies are being pursued that may be environmentally damaging, such as the collection of firewood or wild food sources. Second, strategies that relied on social support and reciprocity for overcoming food deficits are eroding due to recurrent droughts which have depleted local surplus food stocks. Claims on food stocks are becoming more difficult to meet. The integration of individual households into the market system has also decreased the dependence on reciprocal exchanges. Third, a shift has been observed in the responsibility for coping with drought from the individual household and local community toward the national government and non-government organizations through food relief programmes. This trend is due in large part to the reduction in response flexibility of small farm households.

The Effect of Coping Strategies on Desertification

The effect of these coping strategies on desertification processes depends on the type of action taken. Risk-minimizing strategies that have neutral or positive effects include crop diversification, and choosing crops with different maturation characteristics, varieties which are less drought sensitive, intercropping, or varying planting dates. Strategies based on further intensification, on the other hand, are likely to lead, in already fragile environments, to greater degradation. Similarly, expansion of cropping are onto unsuitable lands is also likely to have negative consequences for environmental degradation.

Some loss-management mechanisms, by reducing the dependency of the rural poor on their environment would be expected to reduce pressures on the land and thereby reduce desertification. However decreasing dependency on the land may have implications for natural resource management which are counter intuitive. By weakening the link between land and livelihoods, incentives for natural resource management are reduced. This effect will be most extreme in the case of out-migration.

Lack of management of pastures may lead to uncontrolled grazing by livestock -- as with poorly managed common property resources -- and to land deterioration by erosion and the encroachment of non-palatable species. Similarly lack of maintenance of anti-erosion structures can lead to further land and water degradation.

The shift from risk-minimizing mechanisms to loss-management mechanisms observed above -- essentially a shift from agriculture to other livelihood sources -- can mean that many of the traditional coping strategies of the first type may be lost -- for example knowledge of wild plants and "famine foods". This may contribute to the long-term loss of resilience. Also it may represent a loss of indigenous knowledge on biodiversity which accompanies the loss of biodiversity itself.

Implications for Vulnerability to Drought and Environmental Resilience

Drought, food shortages and consequences are a recurrent problem of the normal production cycles of many rural households. But their vulnerability may increase and their resilience decrease with each recurrence.

Successive droughts and resulting degradation have contributed significantly to the erosion of livelihood systems in the arid and semi-arid regions of Sub-Saharan Africa. These livelihood systems are structurally vulnerable because the primary and secondary activities can no longer guarantee annual food needs in most years. In turn this has increased pressures on the environment, increasing degradation. These systems have become less resilient and more sensitive to recurring shocks. The capacity of livelihood systems to accumulate surpluses in good years, and to rely on buffers in dry years, has been replaced by a cycle of subsistence and coping in every year. Coping strategies that were employed in the past only during periods of food stress are now adaptive strategies that have become incorporated into the normal pattern of activities of local livelihood strategies. These systems are less flexible and highly susceptible to livelihood failure. Even those livelihood systems that have become more diversified to spread risk are vulnerable because the diversification is becoming less effective. Buffers against periods of stress are starting to disappear. This explains why each successive drought may develop into a crisis, leading to greater and greater dependence on food aid.

In summary, livelihood systems in the drought-prone areas of Africa are becoming more vulnerable with each cycle of drought and the failure to recover from it. Thus, a number of communities are experiencing a progressive erosion of their basis of subsistence, resulting in further degradation of their natural resource base to compensate for these shortfalls. This process of impoverishment has also drastically affected the allocation of government resources, diverting development capital into emergency relief.

The expectation of drought on the part of farmers involves complex strategies to risk aversion which may also hinder investment in long term productive capital development, and which very commonly come into conflict with technical prescriptions for productivity improvement. People living in areas subject to drought and desertification are less likely to incur debt to acquire productivity-enhancing inputs if they view the investment as a risk to their strategies aimed at maintaining resilience in a fluctuating climate. For example, investments in long-term productive capital development aimed at increasing agricultural productivity may reduce a households flexibility to respond in the event of a drought.

Drought and desertification and the resultant loss of resilience of livelihood systems does not affect all groups equally. In communities marked by landholding and income inequalities, household responses occur differentially along the lines of wealth and access to resources. Identical climatic conditions can affect households of varied economic levels to different degrees. Seasonal shortages for some families produce famine conditions for others. Poorer households, including many women- headed households, having smaller holdings and a weaker resource base, are more vulnerable to stress than are wealthier households, and begin to suffer earlier when food shortages hit. The poor resort to early sale of livestock, pledge farms, incur debt, sell labour, and borrow grain at high interest rates. In essence, crop failures and other shocks reveal rather than cause the fragile nature of household food security among vulnerable rural families. At the same time, prosperous households buy livestock at deflated prices in conditions of over supply, sell or lend grain to needy farmers, purchase wage labour at depressed prices, and purchase land. Thus during a food crisis, a cycle of accumulation and decapitalization can occur simultaneously in the same community, depending on the depth of the current crisis.

SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF DROUGHT AND DESERTIFICATION

A central theme of this paper is that the causes and consequences of desertification, and the compounding effects of drought, are closely intertwined and cannot be easily separated from one another. Many of the consequences of desertification can become causes of further desertification and so on. It is therefore more appropriate to view causes and consequences as part of a mutually reinforcing dynamic that fuels the spiral of desertification and poverty. The effects of this spiral are most severe at household and local levels.

The precise nature of economic costs at the local level vary on a site specific basis. The broad conditions of poverty that result from and contribute to desertification have been discussed earlier in the paper.

While the general processes associated with poverty and desertification can be identified in broad terms, it appears that the cumulative economic costs of desertification at the national level have not been adequately assessed in most countries. Data presumably exist at the country level to allow a natural resource accounting approach to be used for determining the magnitude of these costs in terms of production forgone.

The socio-economic costs of global externalities that arise from desertification at the country level can only be speculated upon at this stage and research is required to establish the nature of any linkages that may exist.

The following are some broad indications of the socio-economic costs of desertification at the country and global levels.

NATIONAL EFFECTS

Decline in the Stock of Natural Capital

It has been estimated that 70% of the world's total dryland area is affected by desertification. The most direct effect of desertification is the decline in the quality and quantity of natural assets: soil, water and biological. Globally, it has been estimated by UNEP that the annual value of production foregone amounts to $40 000 million for on-site costs alone. The value of this lost production in developing countries has been estimated to be $16 000 million. These estimates do not include the off-site costs of desertification, such as downstream siltation of dams, etc which are reported to be of high magnitude.

The decline in natural assets is a particular problem in those countries where the stock of capital is low and where dependence on natural resources is high. The decline in the natural capital stock to population ratio is likely to lead to further environmental degradation and underdevelopment.

Increased Poverty

Worldwide, the livelihoods of one billion people are said to be affected by desertification. The result at the national level is the deepening of poverty both of people and institutions, further constraining the ability of countries to invest in sustainable development. Countries are increasingly vulnerable to the effects of adverse trends in international economic relations and external shocks and natural disasters.

National Food Insecurity

Drought and desertification adversely affect national food security objectives. In Sub- Saharan Africa, for instance, country forecasts for the year 2000 consistently point to food gaps of 15 to as much as 30 mt of maize equivalent, depending on population projections and assumptions about growth in agriculture. Continued desertification may severely constrain the ability of these countries to increase current growth in food production of 2% per annum, to the 5% rate required to avoid food imports by the year 2000. To the extent that poverty and desertification will contribute to maintaining high fertility rates, the situation may be further worsened.

Increased Dependence on Food Aid and Impacts on Government Budget

Droughts, coupled with chronic food shortages exacerbated by desertification, have forced many governments to mount massive food transfers almost every year since the mid 1970s. Food aid accounts for a net transfer of about 1 billion U.S. dollars per year -- equivalent to the total net transfers to the region by the World Bank (IBRD and IDA). One third of this food aid is provided as emergency assistance, but two thirds is used to meet Africa's large and growing food gap. For example, in Zimbabwe, the Government has spent on average, Z15 million over the past 3 years in order to provide drought relief. Preliminary IFAD estimates for one country, suggest that a family of five could be made self-sufficient in food from their own production for 20 years for the cost of transport of food aid for one year.

Effects on Financial Systems

Drought and desertification can also affect the viability of national financial systems. Repayment on the part of traders and farmers in drought-stricken areas becomes more and more difficult, especially if other alternative income earning activities are not available. This can present major obstacles to the establishment of credit services on a commercial basis in these areas. In addition, farm families are not able to accrue the benefits in non-drought years because they are repaying debts incurred in bad years. This pattern prevents many families from investing in protective measures against future droughts.

Adverse Fiscal Impacts

In many African countries, Governments are providing funds for drought relief, supplementary feeding and recovery at the same time that they are attempting to undergo a structural adjustment process. These food transfers are diverting limited Government resources to non- development expenditures, further decreasing the chances for the governments to reduce their debt burdens. Not only are the food transfers costly, but the lack of tax revenue generated in the areas subject to recurring droughts and degradation imposes additional costs to the governments.

Unbalanced Socioeconomic Development

Migration resulting from drought and desertification can result in an increased burden on the absorptive capacity of urban areas. Urban populations in dryland areas have been growing at 5% - 6% per annum over the last 20 years, much faster than rural populations and up to half of this growth is due to rural to urban migration. In Chad, Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso for example the capital cities contain more than half of the total population of each nation. Such developments place a tremendous burden on governments which have to provide costly urban services.

Agricultural development also suffers, since the cities which normally have greater political influence than rural areas consume a growing proportion of the national budget. The corollary of urbanization is sometimes abandonment or poor management of land and other natural resources. In extreme cases whole areas may be left without management which can lead to further land degradation through lack of maintenance of terraces or other anti-erosion structures, uncontrolled grazing etc. In other cases the migration is selective by which the most talented or innovative section of the population may leave, denying the region of skilled labour for agriculture, and for essential services. Traditional systems of natural resource management break down and female headed households are left with the burden of land management.

Social Disruption, Environmental Refugees, and Civil Strife

The loss of patrimony implied by desertification and the erosion of traditional ways of life are other important effects of drought and desertification. Drought and desertification can lead to increased disputes over land and natural resources (local, inter-tribal, inter-ethnic) and other forms of social disruption. Uncontrolled large scale rural to urban migration can strain the social order in towns and cities, particularly by swelling the ranks of the urban unemployed or underemployed.

Large scale displacement of people, particularly in cases of severe food shortage, can strain normal social structures in the receiving areas and lead to social unrest including inter-ethnic and inter-tribal conflicts.

Global Externalities

Increased poverty at the country level can generate costs outside national boundaries. In the last two decades, at least 10 million persons have been dislocated as environmental refugees from and within dryland areas. Political instability and civil strife, and the diaspora of environmental and economic refugees, can have significant implications at the regional and global levels.

Attending to the needs of refugees, or attempting to do so, has large economic and political costs. Political attention and economic resources are diverted from tackling other major global problems; in particular attention and resources are diverted from development programmes to relief activities. These problems become particularly acute when political instability resulting from drought and desertification results in conflict.

Loss of Biological Diversity

Drought and desertification also results in environmental externalities. The most significant of these on a global scale is probably the loss of biodiversity. The main processes by which desertification leads to the loss of dryland biodiversity are: land degradation per se (through soil erosion, deforestation, or salinization; climate change may pose an additional threat); and the breakdown of traditional systems of natural resource management with the parallel loss of traditional plant varieties and associated cultural knowledge.

Drylands, including many areas subject to drought and desertification, are particularly important regions for plant genetic resources. Six of the ten classical centres of diversity of the major food crops are predominately in such areas: the Mediterranean centre; the West Asian centre; the Central Asian centre; the Abyssinian centre; the Meso-American centre; and the Andean centre. These include the centres of diversity for many of the world's major food crops including wheat, barley, maize, sorghum, millet, and pigeon pea. Other dryland areas, including large parts of Africa south of the Sahara, are also important as secondary centres of diversity of major food crops such as sorghum, maize and cassava.

Genetic resources obtained from the centres of diversity, whether directly or via ex situ genebanks, are indispensable inputs for the breeding of modern crop varieties. It is difficult to determine the value of these resources to the world community, but the OECD estimates that US agriculture alone benefits to the order of several billion dollars a year from the use of plant genetic resources originating in the developing countries; most of these originate from drylands.

Besides the major food crops, drylands are important areas for "minor" food plants; medicinal plants; trees of importance in agroforestry; and underutilized plants of potential economic importance.

Other Global Environmental Externalities: Global Warming, International Waters

Recent discussions on the global environmental consequences of desertification have yielded some initial conclusions, on the basis of limited research. Although the nature and magnitude of these linkages remains highly speculative, the socio-economic implications may be considerable.

Global Warming/Climate Change: Loss of vegetative cover in drylands can impact on temperatures, albedo effect, surface water balances, ground water recharge and water quality, and dust production. The effects can be felt at local, regional and global scales. Furthermore, drylands have a significant role to play in global carbon cycles.

International Waters: The most significant impacts of desertification on international waters include: decrease in surface and groundwater/ flash floods and decrease in base flows; saline intrusion in coastal areas; sedimentation and salinization of fresh and saline waters, resulting in loss of biodiversity, disruption of fisheries, coastal erosion, and other effects.

ENDNOTES

1. It is noted that UNCED defined Desertification to be "desertification is defined as land degradation in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors including climatic factors and human areas" (UNCED Agenda 21, Chapter 12)

2. UNEP (1992)

3. Michael Lipton (1993) "Poverty Reduction, Sustainable Agriculture, and the Project Cycle", Technical Issues in Rural Poverty Alleviation, Staff Working Paper 15, IFAD

4. For a discussion of these conditions of poverty see Jazairy, Alamgir & Panuccio (1992) The Sate of World Rural Poverty, New York Press/IFAD

5. Jazairy, Alamgir & Panuccio(1992)The State of World Rural Poverty,New York Press/IFAD

6. It should be noted, however, that little empirical work has been done on the impact of policies in developing countries on the household resource base.

7. Conservation investments especially can result in spillover and free rider problems

8. N Jodha (1986) "Poor in dry regions of India" Economic and Political Weekly XXI (27): 1169- 81

9. S Davies (1993) "Versatile Livelihoods: Strategic adaptation to food insecurity in the Malian Sahel" IDS University of Sussex

10. S Davies, M Leach & R David (1991) "Food security and the environment" IDS Discussion Paper, Brighton UK

11. This section draws upon "Promoting Livelihood security in areas prone to recurrent droughts and desertification: proactive response planning for enhancing household drought resilience" prepared by T R Frankenburger for IFAD, May, 1993

12. J Corbett (1988) "Famine and Household Coping Strategies" World Development 16 (9) 1009- 1112

13. T Walker and N Jodha (1986) "How small farmers adapt to risk" in "Crop insurance for agricultural development: issues and experiences" P Hazell ed, Baltimore, Maryland, The John Hopkins University Press

14. M Watts (1988) "Coping with the Market: uncertainty and food security among Hausa peasants" In "Coping with uncertainty in food supply" De Garine & Harrison (Eds) 260-290 Oxford; Clarendon Press

15. UNEP

16. World Bank/WFP (1991) "Food aid in Africa: an agenda for the 1990s, Joint Study; S Maxwell (1993) "Response to drought and famines in Sub-Saharan Africa: A new agenda" paper presented to NRI/IFPRI symposium on "Critical food policy issues for Sub-Saharan Africa"

17. UNEP/UNDP/UNSO Workshop on GEF and Desertification, Nairobi, 28 - 30 October 1992

IMPACT OF ECONOMIC POLICIES, INCLUDING INCENTIVES AND DISINCENTIVES TO APPROPRIATE TECHNOLOGIES, PARTICULARLY LAND TENURE SYSTEMS AND SUBSIDIES

Presented by : Mr. Hassan M. Hassan, Senior Environment Specialist, World Bank (WB), based on a paper by John English, until recently Principal Economist in the Environment Department of the World Bank

INTRODUCTION

While there are natural phenomena which give rise to climatic changes that may lead to degradation of land resources in certain areas, the problem which is of concern to us is the effect of man's activities. More specifically, it relates to the range of agricultural activities with which people attempt to generate a livelihood for themselves and their families. "Unfortunately, there is an extreme dearth of research assessing the impacts of policies on sustainability, growth, and poverty alleviation, through their effects on household and village level behaviour" (Reardon and Vosti, in Vosti et. al 1992). Despite this assessment, there are points which can be made as we move towards a framework for grappling with the problem of desertification.

The areas potentially covered by this topic are many and complex. General issues related to dryland management and agricultural sustainability, growth and poverty alleviation have been discussed in a number of volumes (Dixton et. al. 1989, and Vosti et. al., 1992). In the brief time that we have here, we will only be able to highlight some of the major issues, particularly in dryland areas, primarily illustrated by examples from the Bank's own experiences.

Even if we could, we could not now, in most parts of the world, try and stop people utilizing land in semi-arid or arid areas in order to try and help sustain themselves or their families. The pressures of population are too great. What we have to try to do is to help those people that are in these areas utilize the land resources in a more sustainable manner. Work in the Bank on the development of sustainable agricultural systems indicates that the conditions necessary include physical, economic and social factors. This is illustrated in Chart 1. Some of the elements included in these categories are indicated in the second chart. Ideally what one would like is social tranquillity in an open society, a diverse economy with good commercial systems, reasonably well-developed infrastructure, and resilient soils with moderate, well distributed rainfall and temperatures.

The problem with drylands in general, and in Sub-saharan Africa in particular, is that they suffer from a number of constraints, which means that the above conditions are far from being present in many situations. The constraints faced here in developing sustainable land use systems primarily arise from the marginality of many dryland regions. These constraints impact across the board:

i. Rainfall is relatively low, typically less than 800 mm (less than the rate of transpiration), unevenly distributed through the year and often unreliable, and also variable from year to year usually with a longer term cyclical variation. Because of moisture deficits, the density of plants on the soil surface is relatively low and provides incomplete cover from the infrequent heavy rain storms, leading to an increase of erosion and soil loss. As a result productive potential per unit area is low, except where irrigation has been possible to overcome the water constraint;

ii. Low population densities and low levels of output have meant that the areas have generally become economically marginal, with poorly developed or limited physical and economic infrastructure, e.g., transport and marketing systems are limited and short term increases or declines in production cannot be easily handled;

iii. Partially because of this, the occupants of dryland areas are often politically marginal, being poorly represented in the governmental and other power structures, and often physically at the periphery of the nation states, a factor which can complicate the solution of the areas' problems, since their very marginality means that the process of development of the relevant nation state will not by itself take care of the problem of the dryland areas.

The most appropriate strategies for the improved management of dryland areas are by no means self-evident for three main reasons. First, the physical nature and extent of what has been termed "desertification" is not well understood and continues to be a subject of controversy, partly because of the elusiveness of the concept itself, but partly because of weak data (Nelson, 1989). Second, the underlying causes of land degradation in dryland areas, which might appear clear at first sight, are often less clear when probed more deeply (Bie, 1990). Third, the impact of changes in public policy aimed at improving land management are not easy to predict and seem to be quite dependent on both the geographic location and stage of economic development.

Many efforts have been made to promote technological change and the development of sustainable land use systems. This paper will argue that the key element in the long term is the creation of an overall economic and social environment which facilitates change by rural households, rather than specific policies or interventions. The paper will first note elements of innovation in two cases where reasonably sustainable systems have evolved in dryland areas. It will then discuss two well known programs, based on marketing or input supply interventions, which were designed to boost productivity, primarily in similar, semi-arid areas: cotton production in West Africa, and the fertilizer program in Nigeria. It will then proceed to discuss more general policies which might help move agricultural systems toward sustainability.

Innovation and Agricultural Sustainability

When we talk of development of sustainable agricultural systems, what do we mean? Considerable changes are taking place in agricultural systems, even in the semi-arid regions (Spiers and Olsen, 1992). Can we draw some lessons from these changes which might suggest appropriate policy approaches?

Soil Conservation. One example of adaptation of agricultural systems to accommodate population growth and avoid land degradation is shown by what happened in Machakos district, Kenya over the past 60 years (English et. al., 1993). In the 1930s, population pressure, aggravated by a series of drought seasons, resulted in increased pressure on the land resources and appearance of erosion on exposed slopes. Following World War II, the colonial administration began a program of construction of narrow based terraces to control runoff. The programs were usually implemented on a watershed basis, using compulsory labor, which was unpopular. Partly because of the methods used to construct them, maintenance of the terraces by farmers was often inadequate and they fell into disrepair almost as fast as they were constructed. In the 1950s bench type terraces were tried as it became apparent that increasing the infiltration of rainfall was more important for cropping in the semi-arid conditions than controlling and directing runoff. As Independence approached extension efforts wound down and significant efforts to promote conservation did not resume until the late 1970s, as part of a national program. However, inspection of air photos covering the period since 1948 shows that by 1978 almost all of the arable area in the settled part of the district had been terraced, most during the 1960s and 70s when no formal inducement or pressure was being applied. Why was this?

A number of different factors appear to have come into play. When the local population began to use animal traction in the 1930s they used heavy ploughs and large teams of oxen (6-8) as on the European run farms. Soldiers returning from India introduced lighter ploughs from that source and, as farmers became more used to using the oxen, they began to manage with smaller teams. Two is now normal. This made the system much more manoeuvrable and suitable for use on small plots such as terraces. A second factor was that in the lat 50s the local experiment station introduced the first short duration maize suitable for the area. This increased the likelihood of getting a crop, even in a relatively dry year. Furthermore, the use of terraces and animal traction allowed a seed bed to be prepared before the rains came, so that planting could be undertaken as the first rain arrived. Traditionally, farmers had waited for the first rain to soften the soil before starting to cultivate. In addition the improved moisture infiltration allowed farmers to grown more trees and a number of new cash crops, such as horticultural crops and coffee, for which there was a market in Nairobi and overseas. Based on experiment station results showing the progression of crop yields with and without terracing, it has been estimated that the rate of return to investment in terracing was just over 10% (Pagiola, in Lutz et, al., 1993). Given the reduced risk of crop failure in dry years and the increased range of feasible crops, the actual return was undoubtedly well in excess of 10%, and account for the rapid rate of adoption.

This type of example is particularly instructive as it illustrates the multi-faceted nature of such an innovation. The improved staple crop resulted from public efforts, the improved plough from informal private networks, the new crops from the accessibility to markets fostered by both public and private agents, and the development of animal traction was through farmers' own experimentation. This process normally involves a multitude of relatively small changes, rather than adoption of a single improved technology. For example in a study of land management in Machakos district, Kenya, over the past 60 years, a total of 70 innovations in farming systems were identified. Forty of these were new crops and 30 input technologies. Many of the latter also involved a number of changes over a period of years (Mortimore and Wellard, 1992).

Fuelwood. Another area where a sustainable agricultural system appears to have evolved is in the Kano Close Settled Zone (CSZ) in Northern Nigeria (Mortimore, Forthcoming). Studies indicated no reduction in soil characteristics over a recent 15 year period despite considerable population growth and change. One particular feature of the area is the maintenance and utilization of trees, despite perceptions to the contrary. Concerns are often expressed in dryland areas of a reduction of tree cover and an impending fuelwood shortage. For example, in Machakos, reports in the 1940s, 1950s and 1970s all estimated that the usage of wood was greater than the annual increment and predicated significant fuelwood shortages if action was not taken (Mortimore, 1992). No real action was ever taken and no crisis has ever occurred. In fact, photographic evidence shows that there are more trees in the landscape now than in the 1930s.

A study in the Kano CSZ used aerial photographs to show that there had been no reduction in number of trees between 1965 and 1981 (Mortimore et. al., 1990), (see table 1).

Table 1: Tree Density in Farmed Areas

Mortimore notes that "it is clear that average felling and cutting does not exceed the average increment, since tree density is not declining and mature trees are numerous." In addition, exploitation is intensive. On a sample of 13 farms, Cline-Cole et. al. (1987) found 43 trees of 16 species; 27 had lopped branches, 7 live trees had been felled or stumped, and dead trees had been exploited. A survey in Machakos found that virtually every farm had trees and that there was no difference in the density of trees with farm size. In fact, including bananas, density was higher on smaller farms.

In such cases what has happened has been well summarized by Shepherd (1989); "What has gone on is a process of improvement upon what nature gave in the first place. A tract of bush is turned into a farm with trees on it through careful processes of selection and enrichment. While the diversity of good hardwood species is gradually lost, the gain of fruit trees, in appropriately placed trees of all kinds, and in species which are really wanted, is enormous."

The reason for touching on this example is to note that most public efforts to address the projected fuel wood problems have involved the development of village woodlots or other larger plantations. These programs have, by and large, had little impact. Meanwhile, the Machakos and Kano examples show that the more intensive management of trees by farmers does occur, when this appears worthwhile. Other work (Dewees, 1993) has shown that farmers do consider trees as an option in their planning and do make decisions to plant or clear small woodlots based on the condition of the land, the viability of potential alternative uses and the situation of the family.

Productivity Oriented Programs

Cotton. Cotton production has been an important element of the agricultural development strategy in the semi-arid and sub-humid regions of West Africa, particularly in the Francophone countries, since World War II. Starting in the late 1960s there was a steady increase in yields and production until the mid 1980s. This was based on a well organized research program linked through the cotton marketing organizations to the farmer. They supported changes in technology and increased yields, marketing arrangements based on guaranteed prices announced ahead of the season and provided an adequate return to farmers. Another important factor is autonomy for the agencies which are able to procure and deliver inputs to farmers on time and on credit, and to provide payments to farmers on delivery (World Bank, 1988).

However, the systems have been placed in extreme jeopardy by the collapse of the cotton price in the mid 1980s. Governments attempted to maintain producer prices, but consequent budgetary pressures led to a number of changes to maintain viability. These include elimination of other subsidies, restructuring of enterprises and reduction of farmer prices and of geographic coverage by the agencies and their programs.

As a secondary element, these programs also promoted improved practices in food crops, including crop rotations, but results have been less dramatic than for cotton (World Bank, 1988). One of the major problems in this sector is the high year to year fluctuations in the price of staple foods. This derives from two sources. Because of distance from market and the thinness of the commercial marketing system, the difference between import and export parity prices in these areas are very high. As a result of highly variable production and inelastic demand, price fluctuations are great (Delgado, 1992). The great variability in marketed supply also in its turn inhibits the growth of the marketing system and increases costs.

Fertilizer. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, a major effort was made in Nigeria to promote agricultural development through expansion of extension and support services efforts. This was backed up by a national policy of provision of subsidized fertilizer. A rapid increase in fertilizer use occurred, but subsidy costs similarly increased and in 1989 and 1990 were estimated at about $125 million per year (equivalent to about 75% of the capital budget for agriculture). With the decline in oil revenues this became increasingly unsustainable.

A Bank review of the related agricultural projects has concluded that while there may be justification for subsidizing an input like fertilizer to entice farmers to test and demonstrate to themselves the advantages of its use, the real benefits of continuation on such a massive scale are difficult to imagine, while the costs are obvious. In this case the Government monopoly in procurement required to manage the subsidy had inherent inefficiencies and high costs. As financial constraints increased, reduced or late deliveries meant that, although some of the subsidy was passed on to farmers, illicit rents were increasingly obtained by the privileged few who had access to the scarce timely supply. Initially the fertilizer price differential led to substantial leakage of fertilizer across borders at an economic loss to Nigeria and an illicit profit to those concerned. Artificially low prices also led, in some cases to excessive use of nutrients. In particular, much material was used on crops such as millet and sorghum, which proved to be much less responsive than anticipated (World Bank, 1993).

In both these cases the initial efforts to foster technological change were successful. Farmers responded to the incentives provided, although in Nigeria the extent of the subsidy led to some unproductive use of the fertilizers. However, changed economic circumstances placed both these programs in jeopardy and it proved very difficult and time consuming to modify the institutional and policy structures which had been put in place to support these programs. Unfortunately, the outlook is for the near future to continue to be characterized by economic volatility and financial stringency on the part of Governments world wide, but particularly in developing countries. What sort of policies might be appropriate in these circumstances?

Policy Approaches

Some of the examples noted above illustrate the difficulty of fostering sustainable land use systems in dryland areas. Three factors appear particularly important in addressing this problem:

i. the more economically viable options a land user has, the more likely he/she is to be able to find a sustainable combination of these products;

ii. almost all innovation leading to the development of sustainable systems requires some type of investment (i.e. effort which will only have its results over time). Thus the user needs some sense that he will be able to reap such long term benefits, i.e. there needs to be some security of land tenure; and

iii. where, for climatic reasons, there is great inter year variability in output and incomes, families need to be able to supplement their agricultural income from elsewhere (Reardon et. al., 1991).

An example of a program which incorporates these principles to varying degrees is the often quoted Campfire Program in Zimbabwe. This involves collaboration between the inhabitants of an area (most of which are relatively arid and isolated), local authorities, and groups organizing hunting and/photographic safaris to try and develop a land use systems which maintain local wildlife, minimize conflict between them and agricultural activities and generate income from the localities. This broadens the options available to local people, clarifies the roles and rights of the various parties, generates improvement in local infrastructure and increases contact between these relatively remote areas and the economy as a whole.

Land tenure. Much of the literature related to means of fostering investment in land improvement and intensification has emphasized the importance of security of tenure and has not uncommonly called for ambitious land titling and/or registration programs. However, recent work has raised some questions about this approach. For example Migot-Adholla et, al. used household survey data from Ghana, Kenya, and Rwanda to test if indigenous land rights systems were a constraint on agricultural productivity. The evidence supports the hypothesis suggested by historical studies that African indigenous land rights systems have spontaneously evolved from systems of communal tenure towards individualized rights in response to population pressure and increases in commercialization. In the surveyed areas rights which individual farmers held over individual parcels of land varied widely and were in many cases, surprisingly privatized. Yet with few exceptions, land rights were not found to be a significant factor in determining investments in land improvements, use of inputs, access to credit, or the productivity of land. In effect the important factor is whether the farmers felt sufficiently secure to undertake these measures. Approaches which attempt to give evolving indigenous systems some standing under national law, as is being attempted in the Western Sahel, may be the most effective way forward.

CONCLUSIONS

What type of policies and programs will then be helpful in fostering the development of sustainable systems? One basic factor is certainly social and civil stability and tranquillity. The countries studies by Migot-Adholla et. al. had all been reasonably peaceful for some time and the absence of stability is likely to quickly affect farmers' perceptions of their security. Given this precondition, a number of policy/program elements may be suggested:

i. primary emphasis be given to measures which will assist in the raising the value of farm products at the farm gate, (e.g. improved road access, and elimination of marketing bottlenecks or unnecessary controls and costs) and in widening the range of economically and technically viable land use options (e.g. through experimentation on potential new crops and livestock, including on focus on their impact on land resource management);

ii. agricultural research and extension efforts be better placed on a range of possible technologies rather than a very limited range of 'best' technologies, and particular emphasis given to on farm work and demonstrations and farmer-to-farmer visits;

iii. research etc. by other than official government stations be encouraged to avoid becoming hooked on one approach;

iv. emphasis be placed on other measures which will facilitate the development of other economic activities to help in diversity income sources, e.g. the extension of electricity and telecommunications networks; and

v. where, because of remoteness or physical limitations to production, few if any viable land uses can be developed or other economic activity be promoted, emphasis be placed on facilitating outmigration on a seasonal or permanent basis, or on other measures to improve links with the rest of the economy.

Issues

As efforts proceed towards a framework for approaching the problem of desertification, two fundamental issues will need to be addressed; the nature and extent of land degradation which is occurring; and the cross boundary nature of some of the solutions.

As noted earlier, there is still considerable controversy over the rate and extent of the degradation which is actually occurring in areas said to be suffering from desertification. In fact some recent work (Biot et. al., 1992) has indicated that some of the earlier work on soil loss may have over estimated the effect of soil loss by as much as ten times. If the flawed estimate is used as the basis for policy, the potential for significant differences in perception between the policy maker and land user are obvious. This appears to lie behind much of the difficulties of attempting to implement policy and programs designed to tackle rangeland management (Behnke and Scoones, 1992) and soil conservation (Lutz et. al., 1993).

We noted at the beginning of this paper that the core of the problem of tackling land degradation in dryland areas, lay in their marginality. This means that they are marginal to some other region. Where that other region is part of the same country, e.g. in Australia, a national policy framework can be developed to create some stability for the marginal regions. However, in many areas, particularly in Africa, large numbers of countries are involved. This is strikingly the case in the Western Sahel, where an economic region, currently with a population of about 200 million, is evolving, with its main centers of population and economic activity along the coast. Any attempt to address the desertification problem in the interior of this region will have to be evolved in the context of the region as a whole.

References

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Bie, Stein: "Dryland Degradation Measurement Techniques," Environment Working Paper No. 26, April 1990.

Biot, Yvan, Robert Lambert, and Scott Perkin: "What's the Problem? -- An Essay on Land Degradation, Science and Development in Sub-Saharan Africa," School of Development Studies, Discussion Paper No.222, February 1992.

Cleaver, Kevin M.: "A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank," World Bank Technical Paper No.203, April 1993.

Cline-Cole R.A., Falola, J.A., Main H.A.C., Mortimore, M.J., Nichol, J.E., and O'Reilly, F.D. "Woodfuel in Kano." United Nations University Press, Tokyo, 1990.

Delgado, Christopher: "Why Domestic Food Prices Matter to Growth Strategy in Semi-Open West African Agriculture," Journal of African Economics, Vol.1, No.3, November 1992.

Dewees, Peter: "Trees, Land, and Labour," World Bank Environment Paper No.4, forthcoming.

Dixon, John, A., David E. James and Paul B. Sherman: "The Economics of Dryland Management, "Earthscan Publications, London, 1989.

English, John, Mary Tiffen, and Michael Mortimore: "Land Resource Management

in Machakos District, Kenya, 1930-90, World Bank Environment Paper NO.5, Environment Department, World Bank.

Migot-Adholla, Shem, Peter Hazell, Benoit Blarel, and Frank Place: "Indigenous Land Rights Systems in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Constraint on Productivity?" The World Bank Economic Review, Vol.5, No.1, 155-75, 1991.

Mortimore, Michael: "Land Transformation under Agricultural Intensification in Relation to Population Growth in Northern Nigeria," Draft Report, Committee on Population, December 5-6, 1991.

Mortimore, Michael: "Environmental Change and Dryland Management in Machakos District, Kenya, 1930-90, ODI Working Paper No.63, May 1992.

Mortimore, Michael, in collaboration with E.U. Essiet, and Sebastian Patrick: "The Nature, Rate and Effective Limits of Intensification in the Small Holder Farming System of the Kano Close- Settled Zone, mimeograph, February 1990.

Mortimore, Michael, and Kate Wellard: "Environmental Change and Dryland Management in Machakos District, Kenya, 1930-90," ODI Working Paper No.57, January 1992.

Nelson, Ridley: "Dryland Management: The 'Desertification' Problem," Environment Working Paper No.8, September 1988.

Pagiola, Stefano: "Cost-Benefit Analysis of Soil Conservation," Chapter 2 in Lutz et. al. (eds.), mimeograph, Environment Department, World Bank.

Place, Frank, and Peter Hazell: "Productivity Effects of Indigenous Land Tenure Systems in Sub-Saharan Africa," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol.75, February 1993, pp.10- 19.

Reardon, Thomas, and Chris Delgado: "Income Diversification of Rural Households in Burkina Faso," in Trolldalen (1990).

Reardon, Thomas, Christopher Delgado, and Peter Malton: "Determination and Effects of Income Diversification Amongst Farm Households in Burkina Faso," The Journal of Development Studies, Vol.28, No.2, January 1992, pp.264-96.

Shepherd, G.: "Assessing farmers' tree use and tree-planting priorities. A report to guide the ODA/Government of Kenya Embu-Meru-Isolo Forestry Project." London, Overseas Development Institute, 1989.

Spiers, Mike and Ole Olson: "Indigenous Integrated Farming Systems in the Sahel," World Bank Technical Paper No.179, 1992.

Trolldalen, Jon Martin: "Professional Development Workshop on Dryland Management," Environment Working Paper No.33, June 1990.

Vosti, Stephen, A., Thomas Reardon, and Winfried von Urff: "Introduction," in Vosti et. al. (eds.), 1992.

Vosti, Stephen, A., Thomas Reardon, and Winfried von Urff (eds.): "Agricultural Sustainability, Growth and Poverty Alleviation," Proceedings of the Conference held from 23 to 27 September in Feldafing, Germany, Deutsche Stiftung fuer Internationale Entwicklung (DSE) and International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), 1992.

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ROLE OF PLANNING SYSTEMS AND INSTRUMENTS, INCLUDING INTEGRATION OF ANTI DESERTIFICATION PROGRAMS INTO OVERALL DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMMES

Presented by : Mr. Moustapha Soumare, Technical Advisor, United Nations Sudano-Sahelian Office (UNSO)

INTRODUCTION

This document has been prepared at the request of the secretariat of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for the elaboration of an international convention on desertification (INC-D). It will be submitted to the first negotiating session dan in particular to the meetings dealing with the exchange of information, as decided at the organizational session of INC-D. It will form part of the "Socio-economic discussions of Desertification" and will concentrate on the systems and instruments to be used in planning the integration of desertification control in development programmes.

During the 1970s, as the desertification process became worse in Africa and especially in the Sahelian zone, a number of strategies and approaches were put forward to combat this scourge. Each strategy has had its advocates and received financing in the form of a pilot project (see note 1). The result was the initiation of a wide range of projects which, for the most part, represented a balance between what the governments wanted and what the donors were prepared to give.

In essence, this approach meant that the so-called planning exercise was confined to a shopping list of projects for which financing was sought.

The experience acquired in carrying out these projects compelled the planners to envisage desertification control as part of an overall concept of lasting development, implying a dynamic interplay between all the activities involved. From this standpoint, desertification control should form an integral part of the global strategies and of the economic and social development of the countries concerned.

The document deals mainly with the Sudano-Sahelian Region of Africa (Figure 1 - UNSO's area of competence). Here, the interdependence between socio-economic and ecological systems is very close.

The document discusses first the challenges involved in the development and management of natural resources in the Sudano-Sahelian region and the reasons why this region deserves special attention. It seeks to examine how the planning processes may help to respond to these challenges. It describes the planning instruments and mechanisms that may be used and considers how they may help to solve the problem of desertification in an efficient and viable manner. Finally, it explores the experiences gained in the integration of desertification control programmes in economic and social development plans.

THE MAJOR CHALLENGES INVOLVES IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND MANAGEMENT OF THE NATURAL RESOURCES OF THE SUDANO-SAHELIAN REGION AND THE PLANNING SYSTEMS REQUIRED

The Challenges

The following might be described as the major challenges involved in the development of the Sudano-Sahelian region (see note 2), especially in the drylands (see note 3):

i. Poverty: the drylands, especially in the Sudano-Sahelian region, are among the poorest in the world. Sixteen of the twenty countries in the region are among the most disadvantaged according to the UNDP Human Development Index. In 1980 and 1987, only four countries out of the 22 in the Sudano-Sahelian region achieved economic growth rates above 3 per cent and eight registered a decline. Here also the literacy rates are among the lowest in the world;

ii. Marginalization: despite their relatively large populations and their potential for the production of goods and services, the countries of the region are in danger of being further marginalized because:

- aggravated poverty has encouraged out-migration to the more temperate southern regions and to urban centres;

- recent changes in markets (especially for meat) have led to the growing marginalization of rural production from the drylands;

- the complexity of the socio-economic situation and the natural environment of the drylands make it difficult to achieve economic objectives because of the continuing uncertainty of drought and desiccation;

iii. Irregular rainfall: the drylands need distinct forms of environmental management because the water inputs essential for production processes are highly variable;

iv. Increasing vulnerability of production systems: severe environmental constraints have forced the inhabitants to develop sophisticated strategies of pastoral and agro-pastoral production in order to cope with recurring crises. The options available have been dramatically reduced over the last 30 years, however thus considerably increasing their vulnerability, especially to droughts. Other constraints include the shrinkage of grazing lands the most strategic of which are being taken over by settlers;

v. The fragility of resources and the special need for their conservation: dryland soil conservation raises distinctive problems. Wind erosion is more active and water erosion is more intense. These problems are exacerbated by drought and desiccation. Other dryland resource systems, such as rangelands and woodlands, also need distinctive forms of management which allow them to recover from droughts and desiccation;

vi. Administrative weaknesses: government agencies must adopt rapid and efficient measures to combat the erratic and unpredictable pulses of rainfall. This requires careful planning and monitoring in countries that are already very impoverished.

To respond to these challenges, especially in resource management, these regions must adopt strategies which include:

i. the effective use of natural resources according to their potentialities, without endangering their future production capabilities;

ii. long-term programmes to improve the quantity and quality of resources, while giving special attention to the immediate productive and social needs of communities;

iii. involvement of users in the management of their resources so as to ensure equitable access to them;

iv. management which takes into account the needs of communities and the constraints inherent in them and which is also compatible with development priorities established at the national and regional level'

v. the development of alternative systems of livelihood which will make the inhabitants less vulnerable to the uncertainties of their environment.

These strategies must be built on the following principles: (i) participation of all socio- economic groups at all stages; (ii) decentralization of resource management of local communities who are the first beneficiaries and main actors; (iii) integrated approaches to long-term improvements while giving special attention to the short-term needs of local communities; (iv) iterative approaches to ensure the necessary adjustment of the activities undertaken;and (v) long- term involvement and commitment of all the partners.

PLANNING SYSTEMS ESTABLISHED IN THE SUDANO-SAHELIAN REGION

Background

Economic planning in Africa has a long history (see note 4) dating back to the colonial period. In 1919, Sir Gordon Guggisberg, the British Governor of the Gold Coast (Ghana), launched a ten-year development plan which can certainly be considered as the forerunner of contemporary plans. Tanzania, as it is now known, also had a development plan before World War II. After 1945, the British Labour Government recommended the establishment of long-term plans for each Commonwealth unit in order to ensure grater coherence in the allocation of credits among the crown colonies. Through lack of finance, however, most of the first African plans were not prepared and approved until after 1950.

In North Africa (Jacquemot, 1987), the Constantine plan was *unshed in Algeria right in the middle of the war of independence. It has a special significance because of the magnitude of its preparations and the ambitious nature of its objectives. In scale and the amount of resources involved, these Algerian programmes resembled those that were launched subsequently after African independence: industrialization built up around poles of growth, universal schooling, village regrouping, and huge infra-structural projects for water supply, roads and ports. The Algerian plan was not carried out. Its conception, however, greatly influenced the authors of the first African plans.

The countries of Africa, south of the Sahara, had to wait until the early 1960s (the period of independence) before they could establish the institutional structures necessary for genuine large- scale planning systems. As they achieved independence, these structures grew rapidly.

"In 1985, all the African States, north and south of the Sahara, had a central planning structure (ministry or general commissariat). Forty of them had formally adopted a medium-term plan (quinquennial for most of them or quadrennial, triennial or merely "temporary" for the others)." (P. Jacquemont, 1987, p. 4)

The Reality: Interdependence Between Planning and Resource Management

The newly independent States had inherited an economic system whose operating mechanisms were so rigid and constrained that they were very difficult to re-organize. Also, financial needs, especially those involved in the administrative burdens thrust upon the young States, had force them to maintain the strategies of a trading economy. Export crops and taxation were their main sources of revenue.

As they became increasingly urbanized and developed their economic and social relations, they were able to diversify their activities in order to generate new sources of income and/or investment. Thus town-dwellers, State officials and business-men were able to increase their activities in the rural areas by planting cash crops, usually on the best land, and by raising cattle. During this period, the country-dwellers also diversified their activities. They produced commodities which could be shipped to outside markets and enable them to meet the financial needs of modernization.

These problems were aggravated, among others, by the following two factors (see note 5):

i. the legislative and institutional uncertainty created by the juxtaposition of traditional property laws with modern property laws. In practice, this caused upsets in land occupation, distribution and appropriation. The traditional authorities were stripped of their prerogatives while the institutions and instruments which replaced them were unable to solve the resulting problems. This new situation had an adverse effect on land utilization. It caused a rapid deterioration of ecosystems, made worse by the drought, and also exacerbated social relations. As a result, open or covert disputes arose between farmers and cattle-raisers, on the one hand, and rural communities, interventionist structures (used to administer and manage projects) and urban economic agents, on the other.

ii. the weakness of the planning systems established by the States. In a liberal economy, the economic activities resulting from the harnessing of nature to meet human needs may be based on the simple interplay of initiatives taken by individuals or small groups and/or by the disparate actions of the State agencies. In such a system, economic activities are regulated a posteriori by market forces (supply and demand). In the absence of such forces and to an increasing extent nowadays, they are regulated by State intervention through an adjustment plan designed to reduce the resulting economic and social costs.

The young African States all inherited this liberal economic system and, if there was planning at all, the decision-making centres were in foreign countries and the plan objectives imposed on them. After they had achieved their independence, outside intervention usually led to the establishment of planning structures and the first plans were elaborated between 1961 and 1967.

Undoubtedly, these initial plans made no provision for ecological concerns or any desire to preserve the environment. At that time, the aim was to achieve a rapid expansion of the agricultural sector which in most countries was considered to be the driving force of the economy. Its task was to generate the resources needed to establish a national industrial base.

Furthermore, scientific data on the natural environment, even where they existed, were not sufficiently taken into account in the planning process. Plans were elaborated successively on the basis of a belief in accelerated growth ensured by substantial aid from the industrialized countries (financial aid, transfer of technology, technical assistance, large-scale training of technicians and scientists, etc.). Countries used the project planning technique whose disadvantages, in the absence of clearly defined national policies, are well known. Plans took the form of shopping lists of projects un-coordinated with each other and unrelated to development objectives. Projects were poorly financed and poorly executed. The results went unmonitored. There was no follow-up or evaluation by planning authorities as part of a macro-economic plan. In fact, the authorities were rarely capable of meeting the needs of rational planning.

It was only from the early 1970s, with the birth of the ecological movements in the United States (1970), and France (1976), and above all following the droughts of 1968-1974, that certain countries of the Sudano-Sahelian region began to include in their development plans provisions of an ecological nature. These took the form of specific actions for soil protection and preservation, deforestation control, water regulation and replanting of trees, etc. There were, however, hardly any planning systems which laid down a clear and coherent policy and which allocated the necessary resources for a long-term campaign against the deterioration of the natural environment. Efforts to give planning an ecological dimension remained relatively timid.

Conclusion. While the independent African States considered planning as the essential instrument for the achievement of economic development, for the building of the national economy and for the acceleration of economic growth, after twenty years, most of the countries have failed to initiate a process of self-sustaining growth and the financing of basic investment remains dependent on foreign sources (see note 6). The ecological component has not been effectively integrated in development plans. The planning problems encountered by the African countries in general and the Sudano-Sahelian countries in particular, are political, economic, cultural, technological and methodological. The following reasons have been cited (see noter 7):

i. Economic structures dominated by agriculture are highly vulnerable to drought. This vulnerability is aggravated by their strong dependence on the exterior;

ii. There is no political commitment to genuine economic planning. This is reflected in the following trends:

iii. development is perceived as a visible and quantifiable accomplishment and not as an activity in which all the citizens must participate;

iv. in spite of the professed desire to allow the people to participate, decisions are taken outside of the formal and informal channels which have been established. This has a dual result: first, these channels and structures are weakened, and second (more seriously), the beneficiaries do not participate in the planning process;

v. The weakness of planning institutions and structures are exacerbated by interministerial conflicts, the overlapping of responsibilities and the inefficiency of human resources;

vi. Plan/implementation and follow-up mechanisms are poor.

Additional reasons are as follows (see note 8):

i. Countries cling to the project planning technique based on micro-economic and short-term profitability;

ii. The allocation of existing resources is inadequate (lack of coordination between the plan and the budget) and the financial and technological means of intervention are unable to meet the high costs of proceeding or restoring damaged ecosystems;

iii. There is no genuine policy offering clear guidelines for the management of natural and environmental resources which will allow plans to be translated into actions;

iv. There is no physical planning design that can provide a general outline for developing national territory;

v. The weakness in the decentralization of authority makes it difficult for the people to take part in the planning process.

The weakness in the management capacity of the countries in question has led to many initiatives by those countries themselves and by the international community. Specifically, the UNDP system, in accordance with its mandate, has been particularly active in the strengthening of government capacities, especially in the field of macro-economic planning and development planning. Among many initiatives the following may be mentioned:

i. the management development programme with the priority aim of determining needs for the institutional reinforcement of specific departments or ministries;

ii. the analysis and national programming of technical cooperation (NATCAPs) with the aim of helping the African countries to define and manage their technical assistance policies;

iii. advisory teams for structural adjustment in Africa which allow African governments to be better prepared for negotiations on their Structural Adjustment Programme;

iv. national studies of long-term perspectives for the establishment of macro-economic cadres and development cadres going well beyond the cycles envisaged in development plans;

v. the African Initiative Capacity Building (ACBI) with the aim of strengthening local capacities to analyze economic policies and management.

THE LESSONS LEARNT AND FUTURE IMPLICATION

For the most part, the highly centralized planning processes have served as a mechanisms for the preparation of an "Economic and Social Development Plan" in which the criteria for the sectorial choice of projects and programmes have been worked out on the basis of international financial supply (see note 9) The share of national responsibility in investment has disappeared, over the course of the years, in budgetary sections. States are concerned with staff salary commitments and certain essential operating expenses.

The centralized planning model did not allow the mainly interested populations to become associated in the identification of their problems. As a result, this relatively rigid system became unable to adapt to local demand and above all, to the changes occurring in the policies of the Sudano-Sahelian States. More and more emphasis was placed on the effective participation of the populations concerned. This gave rise to the so-called policies of "decentralization" or "regionalization" which today are widely documented.

It is important to point out that this relatively recent approach to planning in these States requires the following essential prerequisite:

i. the creation of conditions which will enable the regions to achieve greater responsibility for, and participation in, the implementation of development activities.

Since the ultimate aim of decentralization is to give the people a sense of responsibility, the above prerequisite must be gradually implemented so that each community achieves autonomy. This will require:

i. the establishment of conditions favouring the transfer of responsibilities for programme management and execution from the centre to the regions and localities;

ii. the growth and strengthening of the coordinating responsibilities of regional and local authorities for the development activities undertaken in their regions; and

iii. the autonomy of local communities.

This type of planning, which is still new in the Sudano-Sahelian countries, has the advantage of directly integrating the problems of ecology, environment and resource management in the development process. It also requires the identification and removal of the constraints which impede the genuine participation of the people; poverty, illiteracy, lack of information, etc. Finally, this method will also allow the decentralization of financial resources and decision-making.

Desertification Control Programmes and the Planning Process Before the United Nations Conference on Desertification

In the period preceding the United Nations Conference on Desertification of 1977, most of the activities, particularly in the CILSS region, were concerned with projects aimed at combatting the effects of the drought, namely (see note 10), the building of roads to open up the rural areas, the supply of seed stocks and cattle-raising equipment and other means of improving agricultural development.

Subsequently, these activities were diversified to include such projects as:

i. Planting and replanting of woods;

ii. The development of alternative sources of energy;

iii. The economy of wood-produced energy;

iv. The improvement of water management, conservation and utilization;

v. Rangelands development;

vi. The protection and stabilization of dunes.

As an example, Table I shows the resources allocated by UNSO during this period and their breakdown by field of activity.

Plan of Action to Combat Desertification (PACD)

The Plan of Action to Combat Desertification was adopted in September 1977, and approved the same year by the United Nations General Assembly, which requested that special attention should be given to the Sudano-Sahelian region, as being the one most severely affected by desertification. Among other measures designed to initiate the Plan, the preparation of National Plans of Action to Combat Desertification (NPACD) was recommended.

In pursuance of the Conference's recommendation, most countries of the Sudano-Sahelian region began to prepare national plans. The CILSS countries were particularly active in this field and prepared a regional strategy from which the national plans could be derived.

Table II shows the situation of national plans in the Sudano-Sahelian Region. Experience has shown that these plans have been treated for the most part like "another set of documents". They have been adopted, but in practice they have not had the desired impact.

In fact, instead of providing a framework for a genuine strategy of action which is nationally coherent, the plans have provided the context and justification for making out a shopping list of projects for which financing was sought.

It became clear that new thinking was necessary to ensure the real integration of desertification control programmes in development planning. The realization, coupled with the solidarity of the countries suffering from desertification, led to the adoption of new initiatives from the 1980s onwards.

The New Initiatives

The following initiatives were launched at the international level. They were designed to start a process and/or provide a framework for the durable management of natural and environmental resources through better coordination and utilization of existing resources (human, material and financial):

i. The process of establishing strategic frameworks (see note 11): this initiative emerged from the lessons acquired in the implementation of national plans. It consists in the initiation of a process designed to bring together, on the one hand, all the parties concerned with resource management at the national level and the government and its development partners, on the other hand. Generally speaking, this process is characterized by: dynamic interaction, long-term perspectives, coordination/harmonization of all the initiatives at the national level, the conduct by the government of a joint exercise in which all the partners consider themselves as fully responsible;

ii. The World Conservation Strategy (see note 12) was conceived in 1980, and was aimed essentially at integrating conservation with development. By providing a theoretical and practical framework for conservation activities, the World Conservation Strategy also constitutes a basis for concerted action on national and international plans. It has been implemented immediately in the form of National Conservation Strategies;

iii. The Tropical Forestry Action Plan (TFAP) (see note 13) was adopted in 1985, in order to mobilize sufficient human and financial resources to halt or reverse the degradation of humid and dry tropical forests;

iv. The Environmental Action Plans (see note 14) are designed to provide a framework for the inclusion of environmental considerations in the economic and social development of the African countries.

The Practical Implementation of the Initiatives and the Lessons Acquired.

In the hope of mobilizing additional financial resources, several countries of the Sudano- Sahelian region have agreed to launch at the same time some, if not all, of the above initiatives (Cf. Table II). This has led to a situation giving rise to the following problems:

i. the same institutions and the same individuals are called upon to sustain each of the exercises, including participation in seminars and workshops for each exercise;

ii. the same donors are frequently invited to participate in round tables to monitor the implementation of the plans of frameworks that have been prepared;

iii. a series of planning initiatives are launched simultaneously or sequentially, interrupting or halting a government's regular planning activities;

iv. instead of strengthening existing institutions, the various planning initiatives often lead to the establishment of new planning structures and new bureaucratic procedures.

This situation results in: confusion both in the minds of the governments and in the minds of the donors; a less than optimal impact; less success from each individual initiative; and especially a state of affairs which certainly does not foster lasting development. The experience gained clearly indicates the need for greater coordination so as to avoid the duplication and waste of energy and resources.

Efforts at Harmonization

Based on the above experience, UNSO, in agreement with the main interested agencies of the United Nations system, has initiated a process designed to provide an accepted framework for a grater harmonization of planning efforts in the field of resource and environmental management.

Three meetings for this purpose were held in 1990, 1991 and 1992. They were attended by the United Nations agencies (FAO, UNDP, UNEP, UNITAR, UNSO), the World Bank and IUCN. CILSS and IGADD also participated in the second meeting.

Besides harmonizing national efforts (see note 15), the framework of agreement thus established made it possible to adopt certain basic principles which may be summarized as follows:

i. generally speaking, there should be only one strategic framework for each country. Any agency receiving a request for aid in this field, should consult the other agencies with a view to coordinating their efforts;

ii. in countries where a major strategic framework is already in place, the other agencies can play a useful role by making a supplementary contribution;

iii. in countries where no framework exists, the agencies should start preliminary consultations, and if necessary, envisage joint missions with a view to harmonizing their respective efforts.

Also, in the interests of inter-agency coordination, it has been agreed to establish:

i. a system for the exchange of information on new and current activities of the agencies;

ii. an ad hoc group which would meet periodically in order to (i) review and harmonize the activities in the different countries, and (ii) to deepen and refine concepts and methods.

Immediately after the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), the agencies decided to meet (see note 16), first, to review developments within the process of "strategic frameworks", especially as a follow-up to the Rio Summit and, secondly, to identify the practical arrangements for harmonizing the different efforts with a view to the promotion of lasting development.

This international initiative had favourable repercussions at the sub-regional level. In this context, CILSS organized an international symposium on the integration and evaluation of desertification control activities and resource management (October, 1991). Among other objectives, the symposium was designed to harmonize strategies and plans to combat desertification and/or to manage resources and to integrate those strategies and plans in the economic and social development process of the members of CILSS (see note 17).

In order to persuade the CILSS countries to establish a single integration framework, the symposium proposed a dual approach consisting of (see note 18) quotation to be inserted:

"As a first step, organizing in each country a concertation between the parties concerned (State, partners in development, NGOs, collective organisations, etc.) with a view to adopting a country- specific integration framework. On this occasion the modalities for integration, institutional mechanisms, management tools and associated skills will be defined, as will the monitoring and evaluation systems pertaining to the activities to be integrated. The integration of the people involved will be accomplished bearing in mind the fixed deadlines."

In the second stage, establishing a programme budget for the integrated activities, in cooperation with the development partners (determine the programming basis bearing in mind specific resource needs, output deadlines, finance plans and budget allocations, according to the sources of finance, either the national budget, external assistance, etc.)"

Conclusion: The coordination of efforts has reached a turning point. The search for complementarity in the initiatives is beginning to emerge. The extra step must now be taken to make this complementarity effective and positive in order to respond, as broadly as possible, to the common challenge of achieving lasting development.

CONCLUSIONS AND SUGGESTIONS

On the basis of the experience acquired of the challenges and constraints involved in the development and management of natural resources in the Sudano-Sahelian region and in view of the efforts at harmonization now under way, the following elements, in the form of commitments, may be considered for inclusion in a possible convention. These elements concern:

i. Planning as a political act and a technical activity;

ii. Coordination of interventions at the national level;

iii. Harmonization of donor interventions;

iv. The search for an intensification of the commitment of the parties to the execution of programmes;

v. Research and prospective studies which sustain the planning process, including policy and strategy formulation;

vi. Participation of the people;

vii. The upgrading of human resources implied in the process of lasting development.

With regard to the planning process the suggestions concern:

i. the immediate need to persuade each country to define a single long-term strategic framework making desertification control the main condition for its economic and social development, if its own situation or that of its environment is profoundly affected by this phenomenon; a percentage of the national budget should be set aside for this purpose;

ii. the development of local technical assistance and/or outside support to achieve these aims and in specific cases to sustain governments and their local partners in the identification of basic data and in the elaboration, execution and evaluation of the instruments, mechanisms and structures involved in development planning;

iii. the need to promote reforms which will remove the uncertainty surrounding certain determinants of development such as property law and the modalities for utilizing natural resources.

With regard to the coordination of interventions at the national level, the proposal to establish a single strategic framework is the main element, in terms of mechanisms and structures, for regulating and adjusting all development activities. Decentralization, the regionalization of the plan, physical planning and privatization in certain development sectors, through ad hoc measures to be applied in each case, should bead to improvements in coordination.

With regard to the harmonization of donor interventions, the current efforts to achieve harmonization should be continued so as to support the single strategic framework which each country will adopt within its own national context (Cf. para 35). The principle of having each country elaborate only one strategic plan should constitute a specific commitment by the partners concerned (governments, assistance agencies, etc.).

With regard to the intensification of the partners' commitment to the execution of programmes, efforts should first be directed to a review of the framework and of the instruments established by the agencies and to the simplification of financial procedures and the removal of financial constraints.

The allocation of assistance should be reviewed in the light of the importance to be assigned to the objectives which influence desertification control and the rational management of natural resource in development planning.

Research should result in programmes on which to base the objective of lasting development while generalizing prospective studies. It should also intensify programmes for monitoring ecosystems and those designed to establish criteria for evaluating the effects of desertification. In terms of such effects, the emphasis will be placed on the increase of productivity or the regeneration of degraded lands and a better determination of the costs of natural resources degradation and those of prevention and rehabilitation.

The increased participation of the people will depend, in the countries affected by desertification, on the scope of institutional, legislative, regulatory, financial and other incentives. The development of the people's capacity to plan, negotiate and take decisions should serve as a guide for the definition of such incentives.

List of figures (see note 19) and tables

Figure 1 : Countries of the Sudano-Sahelian region.

Figure 2 : Trends in economic performance in the countries of the continental Sudano- Sahel, 1980-1985.

Figure 3 : Patterns of international debt in the countries of the continental Sudano- Sahel, as a % of GNP-1987.

Figure 4 : Map of areas subject to accelerated water erosion, derived.

Figure 5 : Map of areas subject to accelerated wind erosion.

Table I : Allocation of Resources (Budgets), by fields of activity.

Table II : Status of the Strategic Framework for the Management of Natural Resources and Environment in the Sudano-Sahelian Region.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

CILSS, 1991, Analyse des Stratégies et Plans de Lutte contre la Désertification/Gestion des Ressources Naturelles dans les pays membres du CILSS.

CILSS, 1991, Rapport final du Symposium sur l'intégration et l'évaluation des actions de lutte contre la désertification des ressources naturelles.

CILSS/Club du Sahel, 1993, Décentralisation au Sahel. Documant présenté à la Conférence régionale sur la problématique foncière et la décentralisation - Praïa (Cap-Vert), Mars 1994.

FAO, 1985, Tropical Forestry Action Plan.

F. Falloux, L. Talbot, J. Larson, 1991, National Environmental Action Plans in Africa - World Bank.

G.F. Taylor, M. Soumaré, 1983, Stratégie pour la foresterie dans les régions tropicales semi- arides: Expérience à tirer du Sahel.

Hamid M. Temmar, 1996, La planification du Développement - Eléments pour un réajustement de la planification en tant qu'instrument de développement.

IPD/AOS, 1987, Communication à un colloque tenu à Nairobi en mars 1987.

Mersie Ejigu, 1991, Development Planning in Africa - Which Way Now?

Pierre Jacquemot, 1987, Planification et ajustement en Afrique subsaharienne.

UICN, 1980, World Conservation Strategy.

UNSO, 1988, Report of an in-house study.

UNSO, 1990, Report of the First meeting on Harmonization of Strategic Planning Frameworks for Environment and Natural Resources Management.

Notes :

1. Taylor, Soumaré 1983.

2. UNSO working paper entitled "Draft Strategy for the Management of Drylands".

3. In this document the term "drylands" means "arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid zones"

4. P. Jacquemot, 1987, Planification et Ajustement en Afrique sub- saharienne.

5. CILSS, 1991, Analyse des stratégies et plans de lutte contre la désertification/gestion des ressources naturelles dans les pays membres du CILSS.

6. Hamid M. Temmar, 1986: La Planification du développement - Eléments pour un réajustement de la Planification en tant qu'instrument de développement.

7. Mersie Ejugu, 1991, Development Planning in Africa - Which Way Now?

8. IDP/AOS, 1987.

9. CILSS/Club du Sahel, 1993: Décentralisation au Sahel

10. UNSO, 1988: Report on an In-house Study.

11. Cf. UNSO, 1991: Natural Resources Management in the Sudano- Sahelian Region - Establishment of Strategic Frameworks.

12. IUCN, 1980: World Conservation Strategy

13. FAO, 1985: Tropical Forestry Action Plan.

14. François Falloux, Lee Talbot, Jeri Larson, 1991: National Environmental Action Plans in Africa.

15. Summary Note on the Meeting on Harmonization of Strategic Frameworks for Environment and Natural Resources Management; August 1990, April 1991 and November 1992.

16. Summary Note on the meeting on Harmonization of Strategic Frameworks for Environment and Natural Resources Management; November 1992.

17. Cf. Rapport final du symposium CILSS, page 1.

18. Cf. Rapport final du symposium CILSS, page 6.

19. UNSO Report 1992: Assessment of Desertification and Drought in the Sudano-Sahelian Region, 1985-1991.