From Geneva to Riyadh: Eight takeaways on drought resilience

In the lead-up to UNCCD COP16, views from the world’s leading experts on how to speed up action 

More than 30 countries declared drought emergencies in the past three years alone, and that is only the tip of the iceberg: from India and China, home to every third person in the world; to high-income nations such as the US, Canada and Spain; to Uruguay, Southern Africa and even Indonesia, known for its rainforest, recent events are proof that no country is immune to drought, but all can better anticipate, prepare for, and adapt to it.

Droughts impeded grain transportation in the Rhine; disrupted international trade via the Panama Canal; and led to hydropower cuts in Brazil, which depends on water for more than 60 per cent of its electricity supply. 

In this context, the Drought Resilience +10 conference convened the world’s leading experts in Geneva from 30 September to 2 October. They took stock of the significant progress made since the first meeting in 2013 — which framed drought as a risk to be managed with policies, rather than an unavoidable disaster—and discussed ways to speed up action for drought resilience in the next decade.

Jointly convened by the World Meteorological Organization, the Global Water Partnership and the UNCCD, the conference brought together more than 1,000 in-person and online participants from 143 countries. Its recommendations will be central to the negotiations on drought at UNCCD COP16, which will take place from 2-13 December 2024 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Here are some of the key perspectives from the global drought community that will inform the path from Geneva to Riyadh and beyond:

Droughts are a new normal

“Too often, the world continues talking about drought as an anomaly, a disaster, an extreme,” said the Director of the UNU Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU-INWEH), Kaveh Madani. “But we know a lot of these water bankruptcy situations are permanent now, a new normal. This means it is imperative we take action to prepare for, and adapt, to harsher droughts.”

Droughts are a continuum rather than an event that is confined to a specific place and time. They have serious carry over effects that trigger domino effects; supercharge heat waves and floods, multiplying the risks to lives and livelihoods; and, if no measures are taken, increase the vulnerability of communities, economies, and ecosystems to the next drought, feeding a vicious cycle and. So how can the world get ahead of this phenomenon?

“We have the tools, what we need to change are the mindsets,” said director of the National Drought Mitigation Center in the US, Mark Svoboda. “Thinking that because there is rainfall, action can wait, is a mistake. We need to deal with drought before it happens, and we enter panic mode.”

Drought is a development and a security issue

Around 70 per cent of the world’s available freshwater is in the hands of people living off the land, most of them subsistence farmers in low-income countries with limited livelihood alternatives. Around 2.5 billion of them are youth. Without water there is no food and no land-based jobs, which can lead to forced migration, instability, and conflict.

“It is critical to address water-scarcity within the broader context of the Sustainable Development Goals and the global climate, land, and biodiversity targets,” said Secretary General of WMO Celeste Saulo.

In the words of Andrea Meza, Deputy Executive Secretary of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD): “Drought is not merely an environmental matter. Drought is a development and human security matter that we must urgently tackle from across all sectors and governance levels.”

Drought is rising on the global agenda 

The ravages made by harsher and faster human-made droughts, the knowledge that they are only starting to manifest themselves, and a decade of awareness-raising have propelled the issue up the global agenda, starting with the first UN Conference on Water in nearly 50 years in 2023. 

This 2024, the European Council has just urged comprehensive EU-wide action to build resilience to drought and achieve Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN) by 2030; the United Nations Environment Assembly (UNEA), the world's highest-level environmental decision-making body, passed a resolution on drought and land restoration for the first time; and the issue of drought featured prominently at G20 meetings in Brazil.

Additionally, drought —and the need for sustainable land and water management— is being recognized as a connector of the Rio Conventions on biodiversity, climate and land, which will all have their COPs taking place in quick succession from October to December. 

A top priority now is aligning goals, coordinating actions, and harmonizing financial flows at the global level, but especially at the national and community level.

“Policies must trigger change on the ground. This is where we need to go in the next 10 years, otherwise, people will continue to die,” warned Rachael McDonnell, Deputy Director General of Research at the International Water Management Institute (IWMI).

Drought is a long-run game

Participants agreed that tackling drought is a long-run game as opposed to typical political cycles and investment logics, which tend to favor short-term views.

“Drought relief does not promote self-reliance,” said UNCCD drought expert Daniel Tsegai. “Instead, it increases the vulnerability of communities and economic sectors by fueling their dependency on governments and donors, creating a perverse incentive that does not allow them to build their resilience.” 

In parallel, the true costs of drought are not readily apparent due to its widespread and cumulative impacts, which affect everyday life in ways that are not always attributed to drought, according to Roger Pulwarty, Senior Scientist at the Physical Sciences Laboratory of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The result is that drought has been allowed to become one of the most deadly and costly hazards on the planet. 

“Building and measuring drought resilience calls for long-term investments,” said Nathan Engle, Senior Climate Change Specialist with the World Bank's Water Global Practice. Longer horizons also make it possible to adapt governance and management to lessons learned and evolving circumstances —particularly, in the context of climate change.

Solutions must support healthy land and ecosystems

Drought is not only the lack of rain, but a result of the way we treat our land and ecosystems. One of the challenges in reducing the impacts of drought globally is getting that very message across to decision-makers, finance institutions, and communities. Land degradation fuels drought and climate change and vice versa, meaning that protecting, restoring and sustainably managing lands is central to drought resilience. 

“Sustainable land use planning and design offers the largest economic benefit for disaster risk reduction as compared to measures focused on relocation, mitigation and retrofitting , such as reinforcement of existing structures,” said Pulwarty from NOAA. 

Land restoration and nature-based solutions like constructed wetlands, which use nature-inspired processes to treat water, can also offer solutions for both drought and floods, as noted by The Nature Conservancy, the Global Water Partnership, and the UN Environment Program (UNEP.)

Currently, investments in nature-based solutions represent only 3 per cent of the close to US$ 7 trillion invested globally each year in activities that have a direct negative impact on nature from both public and private sector sources. 

Redirecting damaging finance flows and incentives, mainstreaming drought into donor relationships, and having public and private partners join forces were some of the priorities outlined by participants, together with having ecosystems featured in drought plans.

Drought impact data urgently needed

Early warning systems have seen a remarkable development in the past decade, as more regions and countries harness meteorological and physical data to anticipate drought. The next decade requires achieving early warning for all, making sure actionable information trickles down to communities, but not only that.

“Conducting vulnerability and impact assessments on a regular basis is essential to understand who exactly is at risk and why, according to sector, location, and stakeholder group,” said Chief of the WMO Agricultural Meteorology Division Robert Stefanski.

Svoboda, from the National Drought Mitigation Center in the US, concurred: “We need a baseline on impacts to gauge how our vulnerability is changing, and this can only be achieved if we collect impact data in the same way we collect data on rainfall and temperature.”

Rural women and girls typically bear the brunt of drought impacts, although they are also at the forefront of the drought resilience efforts that protect the sustenance of entire communities. Hence, systematically collecting sex disaggregated data to gauge their vulnerability and the impacts they face, but also the solutions they devise is another priority.

Considering data availability more broadly, some organizations are exploring the potential of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to fill data gaps, as noted by Secretary General of GWP Alan AtKisson: “We are looking at how AI could be used, and when it could be trusted, to inform scenario development and support water governance to tackle both drought and floods,” he said.

Health enters the drought conversation

While most drought-related deaths in the past decades were due to famine and malnutrition, drought increasingly multiplies the risks to human health by intensifying heat waves, increasing wildfires, and driving land degradation, ultimately worsing air quality and water quality and quantity. 

Participants noted that drought impacts health directly and indirectly, particularly affecting rural women and children, the elderly, and those who work outdoors. Droughts can trigger respiratory illness that can lead to asthma and cardiac disease; mental health problems; water-borne diseases, and malnourishment —all of which is compounded by the disruption of health services and hygiene. 

“There is a need for preventive immunization in drought-stricken areas, for mental health services, and for gender-responsive drought plans that integrate health,” noted Qudsia Huda, Head of Disaster Risk Management and Resilience at the World Health Organization (WHO). Another priority is educating decision-makers, healthcare providers, and communities on how to reduce drought health risks.

UNCCD COP16 can mark a new era for drought resilience

Negotiations at the UN land and drought summit in Riyadh, or UNCCD COP16, will be informed by the recommendations experts have drafted in the aftermath of Drought Resilience +10 —guidance on core issues like governance, finance, and inclusion of non-State actors. With its 197 signatories, UNCCD is the only legally binding instrument that addresses land degradation and drought at the global level.

The goal is mobilizing the necessary political, financial, and human capital to adequately anticipate, reduce, prepare for, and recover from drought risks, as part of an all-of-government, all-of-society approach that treats drought resilience as what it is —a sustainable development and global security issue. 

“The way to address global challenges is through multilateralism,” said UNCCD’s Andrea Meza. “Building drought resilience is a long-term process that requires a clear and common vision; that is why an ambitious COP decision on drought is so important.” 

Learn more about the final Drought Resilience +10 recommendations, watch plenary sessions, and check out presentations here.

Register for UNCCD COP16 and check out the agenda here.