The Arab spring and the climate change: A climate and security correlations series
Publication year
Resource type
UNCCD Library
External document
Material Type
ebook
Deviations from normal precipitation and mild temperatures systematically increase the risk of conflict, often substantially. This relationship is apparent across spatial scales ranging from a single building to the globe and at temporal scales ranging from an anomalous hour to an anomalous millennium. Each 1-SD change in climate toward warmer temperatures or more extreme rainfall increases the frequency of interpersonal violence by 4% and intergroup conflict by 14% (median estimates)... Amplified rates of human conflict could represent a large and critical social impact of anthropogenic climate change in both low- and high-income countries. The overgrazing of land and a rapidly growing population have compounded the land-desertification process. As previously fertile lands turn to dust, farmers and herders have had no choice but to move elsewhere, starve, or demand change.
Keywords
risk of conflict
drought- prone areas
economic opportunities
migration - environment nexus
human security