A new international scenario-based modelling study suggests that ambitious action can reverse the trend of terrestrial biodiversity loss resulting from habitat conversion. This requires an integrated portfolio of measures including area-based conservation, restoration of degraded land and a transformation of the food system. The study, from an international modelling consortium including PBL, is published in Nature on September 10th.

Global terrestrial biodiversity has been declining at an alarming rate for many years now, with habitat conversion as one of the main drivers. To halt or reverse this downward trend, it is important to know what is needed to make a change. A large international consortium, led by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), set out to explore strategies to reverse global biodiversity trends by 2050. “We wanted to assess whether it might be feasible to bend the curve of declining terrestrial biodiversity due to current and future land use by 2050, while avoiding jeopardizing our chances to achieve other Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs),” explains study lead author and IIASA researcher David Leclère. “If this were indeed possible, we also wanted to explore what type of actions would be required.”

The study focused on habitat conversion as a main threat to terrestrial biodiversity. However, there are various other threats to biodiversity, including for example pollution, infrastructure and climate change. Further work is needed to more systematically incorporate other relevant biodiversity threats in upcoming scenario studies. Nevertheless, the result of this multi-model assessment indicate that bold conservation efforts and food system transformation are central to an effective post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework.