West Africa is widely cited as a hotspot of climate change and insecurity. This SIPRI Insights uses a systematic literature review of academic research to build a better understanding of the relationship between climate change and violent conflict in the region. Its findings are structured around four established ‘pathways’ of climate insecurity: (a) worsening livelihood conditions; (b) increasing migration and changing pastoral mobility patterns; (c) tactical considerations by armed groups; and (d) elite exploitation of local grievances.

The literature review highlights a number of important variables in the relationship between climate change and violent conflict in West Africa: maladaptation to livelihood insecurity; migration away from climate-exposed areas; escalating farmer–herder conflicts; and sometimes weak, sometimes divisive, sometimes exploitative governance. Despite these findings, the literature review reveals current research and policy discussions on climate change and violent conflict in West Africa are informed by a very limited amount of academic research.
Contents

I. Introduction

II. Climate change, vulnerability and insecurity in West Africa

III. Pathways of climate insecurity

IV. Implications for research and policymaking

West Africa is a hotspot of climate change and insecurity.2 Varied geographies, as well as social and political contexts, mean that changing temperatures, rainfall patterns and extreme weather events will have different impacts across the region. In order to build a better understanding of how climate change interacts with violent conflict in the region, this paper presents the findings of a systematic literature review of academic research on the Sahel and West Africa (see annex A), which covers Benin, Burkina Faso, Cabo Verde,Chad,Côted’Ivoire,Gambia,Ghana,Guinea,Liberia,Mali,Mauritania,
Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone and Togo (see figure 1). The findings are structured along four established ‘pathways’: (a) worsening livelihood conditions; (b) increasing migration and changing pastoral mobility patterns;
(c) tactical considerations by armed groups; and (d) elite exploitation of local grievances.3
The review finds that worsening livelihood security and related responses to environmental degradation, changing migration patterns, predatory armed groups and elite behaviour all play a role in how the physical effects of climate change increase the risk of violent conflict in West Africa.