Food production systems developed under stable Holocene climate conditions. To identify these conditions for the first time, we developed the novel concept of safe climatic space. We show that unhalted growth of greenhouse gas emissions could force nearly one-third of global food crop production and over one-third of livestock production beyond this safe space by 2081–2100.

The most vulnerable areas are South and Southeast Asia and Africa’s Sudano-Sahelian Zone, where a high risk of leaving these safe climatic conditions is combined with low resilience. Our findings reinforce existing studies showing that if warming cannot be limited to 1.5–2C, humanity will be forced into a new era in which past experience is of reduced validity and uncertainties increase dramatically. Future policies should concentrate on actions that simultaneously mitigate climate change and increase sustainably the resilience of food systems and societies.

Food production on our planet is dominantly based on agricultural practices developed during stable Holocene climatic conditions. Although it is widely accepted that climate change perturbs these conditions, no systematic understanding exists on where and how the major risks for entering unprecedented conditions may occur. Here, we address this gap by introducing the concept of safe climatic space (SCS), which incorporates the decisive climatic factors of agricultural production: precipitation, temperature, and aridity.

We show that a rapid and unhalted growth of greenhouse gas emissions (SSP5–8.5) could force 31% of the global food crop and 34% of livestock production beyond the SCS by 2081–2100. The most vulnerable areas are South and Southeast Asia and Africa’s Sudano-Sahelian Zone, which have low resilience to cope with these changes. Our results underpin the importance of committing to a low-emissions scenario (SSP1–2.6), whereupon the extent of food production facing unprecedented conditions would be a fraction.