This report assesses the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated recovery measures on emissions out to 2030 and global emission pathways towards meeting the Paris climate goals. Due to the high uncertainty surrounding the course of the pandemic and its impact on CO2 emissions, the report only presents ‘what-if’ scenarios, based on explorative ‘ex-post’ calculations (using sources available before June 2020) for several potential emission pathways and factors that could affect their course, including rebound effects.
Furthermore, this report reviews and summarises the most recent insights published in the literature on post-COVID emissions projections and green recovery trajectories and provides a framework for analysing the ‘greenness’ of recovery packages, using Germany as a case study. Finally, it explores how integrated assessment models can be used to explore both the short-term and long-term effects of the pandemic and associated recovery measures.

Key findings include:
The median estimate for the global CO2 emission reduction in 2020, compared to 2019 levels, is -8% in case of prolonged lockdowns worldwide until the end of 2020, and -4% to -5% if lockdowns are shorter and Europe and North America recover faster in the second half of 2020.

For the longer term, the impact of the general slowdown of the economy would lead to an annual global emission reduction of -2.5 to -4.5 GtCO2e (-4% to -7%) in 2030, compared to pre-COVID current policy projections. However, the impact of a rebound to fossil fuels, with lower decarbonisation rates, the emission reduction in 2030 is projected to be smaller (-3.0 GtCO2e) or may even turn into an increase (+0.5 GtCO2e).
At this point, the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to have little effect on estimates of the 2030 GHG emission levels consistent with a least-cost pathway in line with the Paris Agreement goals, as the 2020 drop in emissions is not due to structural changes. While the CO2 emissions reduction in 2020 is probably unprecedented, a consistent, similar rate of decrease would need to be maintained for decades in order to achieve the 1.5 °C warming limit.

Chapter 2 takes stock of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on current global emissions and expected trends. More specifically, this chapter first focuses on emission data and projections for 2020(as published between April and June of this year) and then combines this information with IMF’s economic forecasts to adjust the pre-COVID emission projections up to 2030. These ‘ex-post’ calculations are presented for the current policies scenarios and compared with the NDC scenarios and least-costs scenarios in line with the Paris Agreement goals. Finally, this chapter identifies the main uncertainties surrounding these projections, particularly in terms of possible rebound effects at the sector level.

Chapter 3 discusses green versus ‘non-green’ recovery, by (i) identifying green recovery criteria, and(ii) proposing a framework to track and evaluate economic stimulus packages, including a classification of recovery measures based on their potential mitigation (or intensification) of GHG emissions. The proposed framework is demonstrated using Germany as a case study, as this country has the most detailed recovery measures planned so far. Finally, this chapter discusses how to assess the impact of recovery measures on GHG emissions. As an example, the ex-post method introduced in Chapter 2 is used to project global emissions under full implementation of IEA’s Sustainable Recovery Plan(IEA, 2020b).

Finally, Chapter 4 explores how the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on emission projections can be captured through modelling, i.e. moving beyond the trend analyses and ex-post calculations presented in the current report. Specifically, this chapter evaluates the suitability of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to explore the short-term impacts of the pandemic – such as the effect of lock-downs and reduced transport – versus the long-term impacts of both the pandemic and the recovery measures taken, in terms of structural changes in the economy, energy production, consumption patterns, mobility and lifestyles.