Food Scarcity Unavoidable by 2100? Impact of Demography & Climate Change
Publication year
Resource type
UNCCD Library
Material Type
Book
ISBN
978-1546442-615
This publication gives an overview of work in progress and applies some original tools to analyze the food situation in the current century on the terrestrial planet. First, for a better description the Climate Classification System from Wladimir Köppen and Rudolf Geiger is applied. This climate system has been developed more than a century ago but has been updated with satellite observations of the last decades. It has the considerable advantage to address climate phenomena independently from national borders and countries. The climate zones are well defined with threshold values for temperature and precipitation, allowing precise boundaries of territories and the evolution over time due to climate change. It provides a strong framework for agriculture purposes. This approach is distinct from usually defined borders based on juristic applied by international organizations. It is much closer to climate change phenomena and therefore more appropriate to the objectives of this research. Some 25 climate zones are used in this publication, covering some 150 countries and five continents. Small islands are included in neighboring zones, simplifying the further analyses. To larger countries several climate zones are attributed. The countries are linked to their continent, providing a very useful cross reference.
Second, the application of the New Science of Networks allows to visualize correlations between climate zones, continents and countries and essential food components such as crops: wheat, rice, maize and meat species: beef, pigs, poultry, sheep/goats, and the basic resources for their production: land and water-withdrawal for agriculture. The data are taken from the FAO Statistical Yearbook 2013. 'Open source' software has been used such for exploring the inter-linkage, Gephi (The Open Graph Viz Platform) and the program language, R, for statistical analyses. Both tools made graphical exploration possible and are inspired by Graph Theory. With the help of own programming with R the following diagrams have been obtained : adjacency matrix, dendrograms, decision trees and the Kamada Kawei algorithm. All help to look after correlations and clusters among Climate Zones and the agricultural parameters.
Third, the demographic increase of the 21st century requires to look in a different way to the significance for the survival of the human species. Demographic data are taken from UN ECOSOC Population Division and cover the period from 1950 up to 2300 as well as for the different continents. In the present publication a time limit is chosen at 2100, the curves of population growth show an endpoint in planetary demographic increase and evolve thereafter to a plateau or even decline. The demographic evolution is additionally listed per continent over the entire time frame, which is very appreciable. A special focus is given in this publication to the African continent, which increase shows a factor 2.83 over the century, whereas the European continent will decrease by some 25 %.
Fourth, analyses of Climate Change and Global Warming have been taken from IPCC reports. The effects on the climate zones are discussed as much as possible. However, the evolution of the zones at the scale of a century or even several ones remains extremely difficult. Some estimations indicate a linear correlation of temperature, other of quadratic evolution. Globally its is accepted that the temperature increase shifts northerly in the northern hemisphere and the reverse in the southern one, and that the desertification will increase as well. These estimations are conform with daily observations, however lack up to nowextensive quantitative data.
Second, the application of the New Science of Networks allows to visualize correlations between climate zones, continents and countries and essential food components such as crops: wheat, rice, maize and meat species: beef, pigs, poultry, sheep/goats, and the basic resources for their production: land and water-withdrawal for agriculture. The data are taken from the FAO Statistical Yearbook 2013. 'Open source' software has been used such for exploring the inter-linkage, Gephi (The Open Graph Viz Platform) and the program language, R, for statistical analyses. Both tools made graphical exploration possible and are inspired by Graph Theory. With the help of own programming with R the following diagrams have been obtained : adjacency matrix, dendrograms, decision trees and the Kamada Kawei algorithm. All help to look after correlations and clusters among Climate Zones and the agricultural parameters.
Third, the demographic increase of the 21st century requires to look in a different way to the significance for the survival of the human species. Demographic data are taken from UN ECOSOC Population Division and cover the period from 1950 up to 2300 as well as for the different continents. In the present publication a time limit is chosen at 2100, the curves of population growth show an endpoint in planetary demographic increase and evolve thereafter to a plateau or even decline. The demographic evolution is additionally listed per continent over the entire time frame, which is very appreciable. A special focus is given in this publication to the African continent, which increase shows a factor 2.83 over the century, whereas the European continent will decrease by some 25 %.
Fourth, analyses of Climate Change and Global Warming have been taken from IPCC reports. The effects on the climate zones are discussed as much as possible. However, the evolution of the zones at the scale of a century or even several ones remains extremely difficult. Some estimations indicate a linear correlation of temperature, other of quadratic evolution. Globally its is accepted that the temperature increase shifts northerly in the northern hemisphere and the reverse in the southern one, and that the desertification will increase as well. These estimations are conform with daily observations, however lack up to nowextensive quantitative data.
Keywords
climate change
demographic explosion
food insecurity
global warming
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