This report finds that while climate change may not be the sole cause of conflict in the future, it will increasingly
become one of the most important and decisive factors. It will play a prominent role as a ‘threat multiplier’ –
in situations where multiple stressors already exist, climate change may breach critical thresholds that lead to outbreaks of conflict. This is particularly true in situations where climate change impacts actual or perceived resource scarcity, patterns of human migration or unfolds within contexts of existing state fragility. In some cases, such as vulnerable small island nations, climate change threatens the integrity and sovereignty of the state itself.