Global Risks Report 2020. Insight Report: An Initiative of the Risk Response Network
Publication year
Resource type
UNCCD Library
Material Type
ebook
This year’s risks landscape is green. The urgency of climate change dominates everything: all five of the top risks by likelihood and three by impact are climate related. The backdrop of geopolitical and geo-economic tensions in 2019 sparked unease as the world grappled with “challenges” such as environmental degradation and technological disruption. Fast forward to 2020, and there is a climate emergency.
Economic risks are absent from the top five. This is worrying, given the continuing global economic malaise that will limit progress in all other areas, including climate action. As lead author, Emilio Granados Franco, Head of Global Risks and Geopolitical Agenda at the World Economic Forum, suggests, perhaps it is this year’s blind spot, “Because environmental and economic risks are inextricably linked, risk perceptions that account for only one over the other mean blind spots may be arising and integrated mitigation efforts may be lacking.”
The top five global risks in terms of likelihood and severity of impact are:
1. Extreme weather events with major damage to property, infrastructure and loss of human life.
2. Failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation by government and business.
3. Major biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse (terrestrial or marine) with irreversible consequences for the environment, resulting in severely depleted resources for humankind as well as industries.
4. Major natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions and geomagnetic storms.
5. Human-made environmental damage and disasters, including environmental crime, such as oil spills and radioactive contamination.
Traps and blind spots
To younger generations especially, the health of the planet is alarming. The report highlights how risks are perceived differently by those born after 1980. They ranked environmental risks higher than other respondents in the short and long terms. Almost 90% of these respondents believe “extreme heat waves”, “destruction of ecosystems” and “health impacted by pollution” will be aggravated in 2020, compared to around 70% for other generations. They also believe that the impact from environmental risks by 2030 will be more catastrophic and more likely.
Cyberattacks on critical infrastructure come fifth. Digital fragmentation more broadly is probably one to watch in the coming years as society grapples with the forces of privacy, ethics, profit and security.
As the 15-year history of the Global Risks Report shows, risks are complex and interconnected. Lose sight of the bigger picture and the headlines can be misleading.
Economic risks are absent from the top five. This is worrying, given the continuing global economic malaise that will limit progress in all other areas, including climate action. As lead author, Emilio Granados Franco, Head of Global Risks and Geopolitical Agenda at the World Economic Forum, suggests, perhaps it is this year’s blind spot, “Because environmental and economic risks are inextricably linked, risk perceptions that account for only one over the other mean blind spots may be arising and integrated mitigation efforts may be lacking.”
The top five global risks in terms of likelihood and severity of impact are:
1. Extreme weather events with major damage to property, infrastructure and loss of human life.
2. Failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation by government and business.
3. Major biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse (terrestrial or marine) with irreversible consequences for the environment, resulting in severely depleted resources for humankind as well as industries.
4. Major natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions and geomagnetic storms.
5. Human-made environmental damage and disasters, including environmental crime, such as oil spills and radioactive contamination.
Traps and blind spots
To younger generations especially, the health of the planet is alarming. The report highlights how risks are perceived differently by those born after 1980. They ranked environmental risks higher than other respondents in the short and long terms. Almost 90% of these respondents believe “extreme heat waves”, “destruction of ecosystems” and “health impacted by pollution” will be aggravated in 2020, compared to around 70% for other generations. They also believe that the impact from environmental risks by 2030 will be more catastrophic and more likely.
Cyberattacks on critical infrastructure come fifth. Digital fragmentation more broadly is probably one to watch in the coming years as society grapples with the forces of privacy, ethics, profit and security.
As the 15-year history of the Global Risks Report shows, risks are complex and interconnected. Lose sight of the bigger picture and the headlines can be misleading.
Keywords
global risks
security threats
global governance
economic resilience
migration
economic losses