May 18, 2021 by Laura Cozzi and Timur Gül

Today the IEA publishes its new special report, “Net Zero by 2050: a Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector”, its deepest dive so far into what’s needed for a successful global transition. It analyses the options as well as the socio-economic, behavioural and environmental impacts they will have globally. Here, Laura Cozzi (Chief Energy Modeller) and Timur Gül (Head of the Energy Technology Policy Division) at the IEA summarise the key principles behind the IEA’s new scenario “Net-Zero Emissions by 2050” (NZE). Which mix of technologies should be adopted, and why. The vital importance of international cooperation that accounts for the realistic abilities of each nation. Ensure energy security at all times, minimising stranded assets and avoiding volatility in energy markets as the global economy doubles in size and adds 2bn people by 2050. They make a comparison with the IPCC Scenarios, and point to the major differences with the new NZE (notably in carbon capture, bioenergy, efficiency, hydrogen, electricity generation, fossil fuels). They appreciate the limitations of any forecast and that, going forward, some technologies will underperform and some will surprise us with their success. The authors stress, as many do, the need for a massive scaling up of ambition in the next 10 years, in no small part because delays risk locking-in high emissions infrastructure. They welcome the unprecedented attention and support climate change is experiencing today at the highest levels of government as well as amongst the public, which gives the world an opportunity now to launch big and bold policies.

What would it take for the global energy sector to reach net-zero emissions by 2050?
The IEA has been examining the critical topic of net-zero emissions by 2050 from different perspectives over the last two years. In the World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2019, we provided an initial assessment of the broad scale of the challenge. Last summer, we assessed the level of accelerated technology innovation needed for the world to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 in our revamped Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) series. And in WEO 2020 in October, we laid out the major steps that need to be taken through 2030, including in terms of changes in consumer behaviour.

And on 18 May we publish our deepest dive yet with the release our new special report, Net Zero by 2050: a Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector.
New: the Net-Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario
The report will present a pathway called the Net-Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) Scenario to reach this goal globally, which would be compatible with a 50% probability of limiting the average global temperature rise to 1.5 °C.

The NZE Scenario builds on our best understanding of the availability and prospects of technologies, potential for behavioural changes, as well as a fair and balanced approach towards each country’s own circumstances. This is a particularly important issue with regard to many developing economies, which are called upon to help address climate change despite having contributed only minimally to the accumulated greenhouse gas emissions that are causing it. It also takes into detailed account the physical energy infrastructure that is in place today, including for different types of fuel supply, power generation and end-uses such as industry, transport and buildings.
Comparison with the IPCC Scenarios
Such choices, of course, affect the energy trends in the NZE Scenario. An examination of comparable scenarios of the Special Report on 1.5°C by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is instructive. The IPCC special report includes 90 individual scenarios that have at least a 50% chance of limiting warming in 2100 to 1.5 °C.1

Only 18 of these scenarios have net-zero CO2 energy sector and industrial process emissions in 2050 – the objective of the NZE Scenario. In other words, only one-fifth of the 1.5 °C scenarios assessed by the IPCC have the same level of ambition for reductions in energy and industrial process emissions as our NZE Scenario. For example, in the “low-energy demand scenario” – which is used as the most ambitious “illustrative model pathway” in the IPCC special report’s Summary for Policymakers – energy sector and industrial process emissions in 2050 are 4.5 billion tonnes of CO2 (Gt CO2) higher than in our NZE Scenario. In addition, the NZE Scenario achieves universal energy access by 2030 – a goal that is not included systematically in IPCC scenarios.

What the roadmap will show – and will not show....READ FURTHER FROM THE SOURCE ABOVE