Biodiversity research is replete with scientific studies depicting future trajectories of decline that have failed to mobilize transformative change. Imagination and creativity can foster new ways to address longstanding problems to create better futures for people and the planet.

The world has changed. Posited to be a ‘super year’ for biodiversity with various international meetings and the conclusion of the Convention on Biological Diversity’s ten-year Aichi Targets, 2020 will be remembered for very different reasons: catastrophic fires, the COVID-19 pandemic, floods, locust outbreaks, a drastic drop in oil prices and widespread food insecurity. These disruptions will exacerbate the already considerable gap between rich and poor, hitting marginalized groups — the impoverished, women, Indigenous communities and people of colour — much harder. Impacts on the environment have been mixed: carbon emissions may be down, but there are growing concerns that nature will be forgotten in the rush to rebuild devastated economies.
Times of rapid disruption create novel opportunities for change. When longstanding ways of doing things are destabilized, new ideas, institutions and ways of relating to one another can take hold. These events remind us that the future is uncertain and that big changes are possible over short timeframes. To capitalize on this moment, the biodiversity community needs to be creative, to imagine new futures that enable people and nature to thrive on our planet. Now is a time to revolutionize how we listen, think and act.

The biodiversity community — those researchers, citizens, local knowledge holders, practitioners and decision makers concerned with the natural world and its relationship with people — are scrambling to use this opportunity to create thriving futures for people and nature. As fodder for the conversations, strategies, research plans and decisions that are unfolding, we offer three possible futures that characterize ongoing debates within the biodiversity community.

Set in 2050, they chart the consequences of decisions or events that may unfold over the next few years. Each future is situated within a rapidly changing Anthropocene. None of them are inevitable. Many more exist: zero conflict, obliterated nature, societal collapse. We have crafted stories that highlight contrasting world views that shape who has power, what values are prioritized and which bits of biodiversity ‘matter’. You will probably like some aspects of each future and dislike other aspects at the same time. We invite you to let your imagination take you to the year 2050.

Authors: Carina Wyborn, Federico Davila, Laura Pereira, Michelle Lim, Isis Alvarez, Gretchen Henderson,
Amy Luers, Maria Jose Martinez Harms, Kristal Maze, Jasper Montana, Melanie Ryan, Chris Sandbrook,
Rebecca Shaw and Emma Woods