A full account of the human consequences of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, beyond the immediate health effects, remains to be seen. However, it is clear that the global economic recession and physical, economic and social disruption are being borne by the most vulnerable. The pandemic risks doubling the number of people who face acute hunger. Even before COVID-19 the world was on the brink of the worst humanitarian crisis since World War II, with over 800 million people facing chronic undernourishment and a further 135 million people suffering crisis levels of hunger or worse. Although we are only months into the pandemic, analysis shows that an additional 130 million people could be pushed to the brink of starvation by the end of 2020 due to COVID-19. Projections predict the pandemic may have a more severe impact on the number of hungry than the global food crisis of 2007–2008, constituting what David Beasley, Executive Director of the World Food Programme (WFP), has labelled a ‘hunger pandemic’ alongside the health crisis. This double crisis impacts individuals but is also fuelled by broader macro-level dynamics. This SIPRI Topical Backgrounder focuses on the effects of the pandemic as they are being played out in conflict situations and in critical supply chains, with reflections on the politics of moving forward.

COVID-19, conflict and hunger

In recent years, a global increase in hunger has largely been driven by armed conflict. Perhaps not surprisingly, the implications of COVID-19 are likely to be especially serious for people residing in either conflict-affected countries or countries transitioning out of armed conflict following peace agreements. Countries such as the Central African Republic, South Sudan and Yemen are all facing protracted food crises. The pandemic means these countries, heavily reliant on humanitarian assistance, including basic food aid, are now facing a triple burden. Wrecked by conflict, they do not have the resources to stage the required large-scale COVID-19 responses on top of ensuring and protecting livelihoods. Among crisis-affected populations, displaced persons are at particular risk, especially those residing in overcrowded internally displaced person (IDP) and refugee camps. This is happening at a time when the number of people forced from their homes by conflict and disaster is higher than any time before.

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