Water availability plays a critical role in shaping terrestrial ecosystems, particularly in low- and mid-latitude regions. The sensitivity of vegetation growth to precipitation strongly regulates global vegetation dynamics and their responses to drought, yet sensitivity changes in response to climate change remain poorly understood. Here we use long-term satellite observations combined with a dynamic statistical learning approach to examine changes in the sensitivity of vegetation greenness to precipitation over the past four decades.

Recent warming has led to large increases in atmospheric water demand and vegetation water consumption in various regions, potentially causing declines in surface soil moisture and increases in drought severity4,5. Vegetation plays a critical role in regulating water fluxes between soil and the atmosphere and is itself also directly affected by the amount of available water in the soil6. In low and mid-latitude regions, water is considered as the primary environmental factor that determines vegetation distribution, species composition and ecosystem functioning, even in tropical forests which is often not considered water-limited