IPCC: Half of global population ‘highly vulnerable’ to climate crisis impacts
Publication year
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UNCCD Library
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news article
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has published a major report on the likely future impacts of the climate crisis, providing starker warnings than ever before on risks to the economy, nature and human health.
Published today (28 February), the Sixth Assessment Report from the IPCC’s Working Group 2 warns that historic failures to cut emissions and slow progress on adaptation efforts have left more than 3.3 billion people – half of the world’s population – “highly vulnerable” to the impacts of the climate crisis.
It predicts that the world is likely to exceed 1.5C of warming on pre-industrial temperatures in the “near-term” on the current trajectory. The report does state that the temperature could be brought down in the future if “transformational” action is taken, but even a temporary breach of 1.5C would be fatal for millions and wipe billions off of the global economy, largely due to extreme weather events and public health impacts.
A long-term, permanent rise above 1.5C is looking increasingly likely, however. The report warns that the window of action for delivering a “livable” future for billions of people is closing faster than anticipated.
In a heated world, long-term trends will include greater levels of migration; a widespread mental health crisis; increased transmission risks for food-borne and water-borne disease; water scarcity and irreversible biodiversity loss. To the latter, it states that the proportion of species facing a high risk of extinction could be held to 3% in many regions in a 1.5C world. But, in a 2C world, this proportion rises to 18%. For 2C, it’s 29%. For 3C, it’s 39%.
These negative impacts, the IPCC states, will not be felt equally. The most vulnerable communities and ecosystems, including coastal communities, small island states and places already grappling with food and water insecurity, will be the worst hit. In most cases, these regions have contributed minimally to human-caused emissions.
A headline finding is that the population potentially exposed to coastal flooding will increase by 20%, against a 2020 baseline, if the global mean sea level rises by 15cm. This is extremely likely in a 2C world. But no areas are ultimately immune to all climate impacts.
The IPCC’s chair Hoesung Lee has called the report “a dire warning about the consequences of inaction”. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called it a further “code red warning for humanity”.
Published today (28 February), the Sixth Assessment Report from the IPCC’s Working Group 2 warns that historic failures to cut emissions and slow progress on adaptation efforts have left more than 3.3 billion people – half of the world’s population – “highly vulnerable” to the impacts of the climate crisis.
It predicts that the world is likely to exceed 1.5C of warming on pre-industrial temperatures in the “near-term” on the current trajectory. The report does state that the temperature could be brought down in the future if “transformational” action is taken, but even a temporary breach of 1.5C would be fatal for millions and wipe billions off of the global economy, largely due to extreme weather events and public health impacts.
A long-term, permanent rise above 1.5C is looking increasingly likely, however. The report warns that the window of action for delivering a “livable” future for billions of people is closing faster than anticipated.
In a heated world, long-term trends will include greater levels of migration; a widespread mental health crisis; increased transmission risks for food-borne and water-borne disease; water scarcity and irreversible biodiversity loss. To the latter, it states that the proportion of species facing a high risk of extinction could be held to 3% in many regions in a 1.5C world. But, in a 2C world, this proportion rises to 18%. For 2C, it’s 29%. For 3C, it’s 39%.
These negative impacts, the IPCC states, will not be felt equally. The most vulnerable communities and ecosystems, including coastal communities, small island states and places already grappling with food and water insecurity, will be the worst hit. In most cases, these regions have contributed minimally to human-caused emissions.
A headline finding is that the population potentially exposed to coastal flooding will increase by 20%, against a 2020 baseline, if the global mean sea level rises by 15cm. This is extremely likely in a 2C world. But no areas are ultimately immune to all climate impacts.
The IPCC’s chair Hoesung Lee has called the report “a dire warning about the consequences of inaction”. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called it a further “code red warning for humanity”.
Keywords
vulnerability
climate change adaptation
climate change mitigation
disasters
human impact
facts and figures