In 2006, CIRAD and INRA launched the Agrimonde foresight project , which aimed to explore pathways to feeding nine billion people in 2050 in a sustainable way. This initial phase of the ’Agrimonde adventure’ proposed two sharply contrasted scenarios of food and agricultural systems in 2050, one based on current trends and one involving
a transition towards agroecology and a major shift in food diets, including decreased animal food consumption, in a context of environmental protection (Paillard et al., 2010).

First, the long-term dynamics of the land use and food security system were analyzed, with a focus on five dimensions of land use (agronomic potential, access to land, degree of intensity of land use, distribution of land between different uses and services provided by land). This analysis made it possible to detect and then to select key drivers of land-use
change, such as global governance and economic development pathway, climate change, food diets, rural-urban relationships, farm structure, cropping and livestock systems. By identifying a range of variables influencing each driver and its dynamics, alternative hypotheses on how each driver might evolve in 2050 were then produced.

Secondly, five contrasted scenarios were built by combining one or several hypotheses per driver. Each scenario describes a situation of land use and food security in 2050 and has been translated into a narrative. At the household and local levels, huge varieties of plants are cultivated for food, fibre and medicinal purposes. Land plays an important role in the culture of indigenous populations.

Thirdly, the impacts of the scenarios in terms of land use, agricultural production and trade in 14 world regions and globally have been assessed through quantitative simulations using the GlobAgri-AgT biomass balance model. The five scenarios and their outcomes were then appraised both quantitatively and qualitatively. Finally, use of this tool for dialogue has begun in Tunisia.

This book presents the results of the work described above, undertaken by the Agrimonde- Terra team with the support and invaluable advice of 80 experts from all over the world and an international Scenario Advisory Committee, from 2013 to 2016.
The first three chapters focus on the methodology used. Chapter 1 describes the ’land use and food security system’ used for the analysis. In Chapter 2 the foresight approach and the method used for building the scenarios are detailed. The GlobAgri-AgT biomass balance model is presented in Chapter 3. The two following chapters describe the background of our foresight exercise regarding land use. Chapter 4 summarizes the main results