The 2020 edition of the OECD Employment Outlook focuses on worker security and the COVID-19 crisis.

Chapter 1 provides an initial assessment of the labour market consequences of the COVID-19 outbreak and the resulting economic crisis. It also presents an overview of the emergency labour market and social policy measures implemented by OECD countries and discusses directions for further policy adaptation as countries move out of lockdown.

Chapter 2 investigates the uneven access to unemployment benefits for workers in part-time and less stable jobs, which often accentuates the hardship they face in times of crisis, and discusses the difficult balance between work incentives and income security.

Chapter 3 provides a comparative review of employment protection legislation (EPL) across OECD countries by developing a new version of the OECD's EPL indicators, which now include an improved assessment of regulations for collective redundancies, unfair dismissals and enforcement issues.

Chapter 4 takes a fresh look at job polarisation, and in particular the hollowing out of jobs in middle-skill occupations.

Finally, Chapter 5 examines the changing labour market outcomes for middle-education vocational, education and training graduates, whose labour market perspectives are challenged by the contraction of jobs in middle-skill occupations.

Despite these substantial efforts, the numbers are stark and our projections are bleak. Even if a second wave of infections is avoided, the June 2020 OECD Economic Outlook projects a 6% annual decline in global GDP for 2020. The OECD-wide unemployment rate is projected to be at 9.4% at the end of 2020, above any previous historical peak, and still 7.7% the year after. The crisis will cast a long shadow over the world and OECD economies. By 2021, it will have taken real income per capita in the majority of OECD economies back to 2016 levels even in the absence of a widespread second wave of infections.
In the “double-hit” scenario where a second wave strikes all OECD economies in late 2020, real per capita income in the median OECD economy in 2021 would be back to 2013 levels. Many countries gradually move out of strict containment measures and the economy re-starts, it is essential to sustain the recovery with a combination of macroeconomic policies and sectoral policies to boost growth and job creation while providing support to the many still in need.

Policies need to sustain public and private investment, especially on green and other essential infrastructure and more generally to foster job creation. Moreover, policy makers will need to modify and adjust the composition and characteristics of their support packages, targeting support where it is most needed and encouraging a return to work where possible. If they get these decisions right, we will be able to look back on 2020 as a year of crisis, successfully navigated. Get them wrong, and the consequences will be felt by many people for a long time.

The Employment Outlook 2020 outlines some of the critical decisions that countries will have to make.