Biofuels occupy an integral role in netzero emission scenarios1, as they are the only bulk renewable alternative to liquid fossil fuels currently available2,3. In particular bioethanol production from sugarcane (Saccharum spp.) shows high potential for land-based climate change mitigation4,5. Brazil, the largest ethanol producer from sugarcane globally, has put in place a series of biofuels policies, such as the National Biofuels Policy (RenovaBio), the Agro-Ecological Zoning, and the current proposal for a credit subsidized COVID-19 Emergency Program to Support the Brazilian Sugar-Energy Sector (Peasse). These measures aim to meet the growing demand for ethanol and sugar while safeguarding the renewable energy targets of Nationally Determined Contributions, as well as generating new incentives for biofuel production and technological innovation under sustainability criteria2,6.

However, the wider impacts of such a pathway have been extensively discussed, showing the complexity of consequences of sugarcane expansion for land-use and the agricultural sector7,8,9. Sugarcane plantations expand to a large extent on pastures10,11, where the associated land-use change can cause soil biodiversity losses12 and structural soil degradation13, as well as pollution and depletion of water resources14,15,16. Nevertheless, environmental concerns have been mostly linked to indirect land-use change, i.e., the process of sugarcane expansion on pastures drives the expansion of pasture areas into natural forests17,18. As carbon storage is higher in these areas than in pastures, indirect effects significantly limit the CO2 savings potential of sugarcane ethanol19,20 and endanger a variety of forest ecosystem services21,22. Furthermore, increasing competition for arable land reveals negative impacts on small-scale family agriculture and food security23,24.