With risks to food security accumulating, continued investment in transparency and policy co-ordination is essential
The agricultural sectors most affected by the COVID-19 outbreak are the livestock, perishable and high value products (OECD 2020d, 2020e). Even though the staple crops covered by the AMIS initiative have experienced – so far – fewer problems due to the pandemic, the AMIS initiative has both helped ensure that this is the case, and can provide valuable lessons that can be replicated in the wider agricultural and food sector.

Early in the COVID-19 outbreak, there was a growing concern that the health crisis was going to develop into a food crisis similar to the one of 2007-08. Thanks to the transparency in staple crop markets through the AMIS initiative, it was possible to have a reliable and regularly updated overview of the global situation of staple crops. It became quickly clear that global supplies of the major commodities were in robust shape, with strong production forecasts on top of already ample stocks. However, it was also revealed that changes in demand, and supply chain disruptions from trade and transportation issues, along with the implementation of export restrictions by some key exporters were the main causes for concern. Calming the markets for food staples by providing information about the demand and supply balances, along with contextual policy information helped policy makers to identify the main bottlenecks and risks and prioritise policy responses.

While global supplies are currently sufficient and production prospects are good, there is a growing concern that a food crisis may still develop in the near future. Several key risks need to be monitored and policy makers need to be ready to respond:
While some countries and regions are now emerging from lockdowns, the virus is still spreading in other countries and regions and is surging once again in some OECD countries.

Economic growth for the entire world is projected to be greatly affected by the pandemic, which will have a severe negative economic (income) impacts on poor and vulnerable populations, thereby reducing their access to food.
There are also several uncertainties regarding the market situation for staple crops. These include drought in several wheat producing regions (Europe, Ukraine), and the locust outbreak in South-West Asia and East Africa.
Policy risks also remain, including the possibility that countries might reinstate export restrictions or introduce other distorting policies (OECD 2020d, 2020e).

Against this background, but also in the face of future known risks such as climate change as well as unknown risks, the role of AMIS in continuing to provide transparency in the market and policy situation of staple crops and to keep co-ordinating policy responses remains critical. The transparency afforded by AMIS is crucial to keep global markets working and to support the resilience of the food system in providing people around the world with affordable, nutritious food.