COVID-19 could compound an already-dire humanitarian situation in the Sahel by exposing up to 50 million more people to food insecurity.
There is a risk of governments using the pandemic for political gain, or to repress dissent, which would further destabilise the region.
Because the informal economy provides most of the employment in the region, it should be better protected against shocks such as the disruption caused by COVID-19.
Despite the financial contributions European and other non-African nations have made to the efforts to combat COVID-19 in the Sahel, African nations and institutions should take ownership of the response to the crisis in the longer term.

In the first in a series of monthly papers analysing the ways the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting stability in different parts of the world, this paper analyses the security, humanitarian, political, economic and business implications for the Sahel and the national and multinational responses deployed to contain and mitigate these challenges.

Since the early 2010s, increased volatility in the Sahel has aroused widespread concern, spurring the establishment of regional and international groupings to deal with the many security and governance challenges that have undermined stability in the region. Among those efforts were the creation of the G5 Sahel cooperation framework (2014), the G5 Sahel Joint Force (2017), the Sahel Alliance (2017) – and more recently, in June 2020, the International Coalition for the Sahel, to tackle instability in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger. Those five countries are the focus of this paper.
There is ample evidence that many of the problems affecting the Sahel stem from poor governance and weak institutions. It is paramount that measures to contain the pandemic do not become excuses for repressive measures such as the curbing of political opposition and civil society.

This paper was funded as part of the awareness activities promoted by PMI IMPACT, an initiative by Philip Morris International (‘PMI’). In carrying out its research the IISS maintained full independence from PMI: the views expressed are those of the authors alone, and responsibility for the information presented lies entirely with the IISS. Neither PMI nor any of its affiliates, nor persons acting on PMI’s behalf, may be held responsible for any subsequent use of that information.