The State of the Climate in Africa 2019, report provides a snapshot of climate trends, observed high-impact events and associated risks and impacts on key sensitive sectors in Africa. The report also draws lessons on existing gaps in climate change action.

DROUGHT AFFECTS LARGE PARTS OF AFRICA. Drought is the natural hazard with perhaps the most widespread significance in Africa. Past droughts, particularly in areas with high vulnerability, such as the semi-arid regions of the Horn of Africa and the Sahel, have had very severe impacts, including contributing significantly to famine in some cases.

Drought affected several areas of Africa in 2019. Among the most significant drought areas were those in Southern Africa, particularly the western half. Rainfall in the 2018–2019 southern rainy season was near or below 50% of the average in most of the western half of the continent south of 15°S, particularly affecting Namibia, Botswana and western
South Africa (except for the far south-west). Another area with comparably low rainfall extended from southern Mozambique north through parts of Zimbabwe and Zambia. Most of these regions also had a poor start to the 2019–2020 rainy season, with low rainfall in the October–December period.

INVESTING IN CLEAN ENERGY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINABLE AND PRODUCTIVE AGRICULTURE
Clean energy and sustainable agriculture are priorities for driving climate action. These are economically inclusive sectors that drive both mitigation and adaptation goals and hence offer the continent the shortest route to accelerated socioeconomic growth to build intrinsic resilience. According to FAO, through value addition, increased productivity in the agriculture sector, which employs over 60% of Africa’s population, is reported to be capable of reducing poverty two to four times faster.

Africa needs to prepare better for climate change by responding to a wide range of potential risks. Agriculture is the backbone of Africa’s economy and accounts for the majority of livelihoods across the continent. Africa is therefore an exposure and vulnerability “hot spot” for climate variability and change impacts.
One promising approach throughout the continent to reducing climate related risks and extreme event impacts has been to reduce poverty by promoting socioeconomic growth, in particular in the agricultural sector. In this sector, which employs 60% of Africa’s population, value-addition techniques using efficient and clean energy sources are reported to be capable of reducing poverty two to four times faster than growth in any other sector.

Solar-powered, efficient micro-irrigation, for example, is increasing farm-level incomes by five to 10 times, improving yields by up to 300% and reducing water usage by up to 90% while at the same time offsetting carbon emissions by generating up to 250 kW of clean energy.

Women constitute a large percentage of the world’s poor, and about half of the women in the world are active in agriculture – in developing countries, this figure is 60%, and in low-income, food-deficit countries, 70%. Reducing poverty by means of growth in Africa’s agricultural sector is therefore of particular benefit to women. It also may be the case that in some instances, women do not have access to weather and climate services; it is important that all individuals be provided with access to these services in order to enhance their individual resilience and adaptive capacity.

Key risks to agriculture include reduced crop productivity associated with heat and drought stress and increased pest damage, disease damage and flood impacts on food system infrastructure, resulting in serious adverse effects on food security and on livelihoods at the regional, national and individual household levels.
By the middle of this century, major cereal crops grown across Africa will be adversely impacted, albeit with regional variability and differences between crops.

Under the worst case climate change scenario, a reduction in mean yield of 13% is projected in West and Central Africa, 11% in North Africa, and 8% in East and Southern Africa. Millet and sorghum have been found to be the most promising crops, with a yield loss by 2050 of just 5% and 8%, respectively, due to their greater resilience to heat-stress conditions, while rice and wheat are expected to be the most affected crops with a yield loss by 2050 of 12% and 21%, respectively.
According to the International Monetary Fund, adverse consequences of climate change are concentrated in regions with relatively hot climates, where a disproportionately large number of low-income countries are located.

The African Climate Policy Centre projects that the Gross Domestic Product in the five African subregions would suffer significant decrease as a result of a global temperature increase. For scenarios ranging from a 1 °C to a 4 °C increase in global temperatures relative to pre-industrial levels, the continent’s overall GDP is expected to decrease by 2.25% to 12.12%. West, Central and East Africa exhibit a higher adverse impact than Southern and North Africa.
Africa’s Agenda 2063, which was concluded in 2013, recognizes climate change as a major challenge for the continent’s development.

Since 2015, the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement have become the main instrument for guiding policy responses to climate change. Fifty-two (52) African countries have submitted their first NDCs and are now in the process of sub- mitting revised NDCs in 2020.
Africa and the small island developing States are the regions facing the largest capacity gaps with regard to climate services. Africa also has the least developed land-based observation network of all continents.
Africa has made great efforts in driving the global climate agenda. This is demonstrated by the very high levels of ratification of the Paris Agreement – over 90%. Many African nations have committed to transitioning to green energy within a relatively short time frame. Clean energy and agriculture are, for example, prioritized in over 70% of African NDCs. This ambition needs to be an integral part of setting the economic development priorities of the continent.