Climate ambition is nuanced and context specific. This new United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) report explores how the world is progressing on climate ambition – Who is leading the way? And who is falling behind? – through a unique perspective that assesses global intentions and also draws on data and evidence from more than 120 developing countries. Despite many challenges, it demonstrates that there are also reasons to be hopeful for the future.

UNFCCC (2021) found that for the group of 143 countries with new or updated NDCs analysed as of 12 October 2021, GHG emissions were projected to decrease by 9% in 2030 compared to 2010 levels. But while heading in the right direction, it is still far short of the 45% slash in GHG emis-sions by 2030 that is required to reach net
zero emissions by 2050. The report also suggested that full implementation of all NDC components – including those that will be financed by domestic public fi-nance (known as unconditional targets) as well as those reliant on international sup-port (or conditional targets) could allow for
global emissions to peak before 2030.

The old adage of “follow the money” re-mains true for climate ambition. As this re-port reveals, most developing countries are willing to take bolder climate action – but their ambition can only be realized through significant scaling up of investments.

We are living in unprecedented times.The world is navigating a triple planetary crisis of climate, nature loss, and pollution. Climate change is now widespread, rapid, and intensifying. From wildfires and floods to hurricanes and droughts – the impacts of climate change are affecting every region across the globe and being accelerated by unsustainable land use practices, eroding ecosystems, and warming oceans.

It won’t be easy, but scientists say that it is possible to prevent a climate catastrophe if immediate, rapid, and large-scale action to slash greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is taken – but each degree matters, each year matters, and each decision matters.
The Paris Agreement’s “ratchet mechanism” is working, but the world needs greater ambition

At the heart of the Paris Agreement are Nationally Determined Contributions (or NDCs) in which nations describe their country-specific contributions to reducing GHG emissions. They also commit themselves to submit increasingly ambitious pledges every five years. This is known as the “ratchet mechanism” of the Agreement.

How global climate ambition has progressed from 2019 to 2021.

What is clear is that Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States – countries that are among the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and contribute to only 7% of global GHG emissions – are collectively leading the way on pledging to raise ambition. But the G20, responsible for more than three-quarters of global GHG emissions and 80% of global Gross Domestic Product, must show much greater leadership by acting urgently and boldly on climate action if the world is to achieve the Paris Agreement’s global goals.

Countries have worked hard to submit better-quality NDCs in a timely manner

Despite the COVID 19 pandemic, the number of “second-generation” NDCs submitted to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) grew from two in September 2019 to 143 as of 12 October 2021. It is anticipated that 38 more countries will submit NDCs by the end of 2021, with the majority still aiming to do so by the COP26 negotiations in Glasgow in November. This would bring the total number of second-generation NDCs to 181 – a significant increase over global intentions in 2019.

Second-generation NDCs are higher quality, more inclusive, and country driven. However, finance remains a key hurdle, which impacts their implementation feasibility. Industries, sectors and investors need decisive policy signals and incentives to transition immediately from brown to green practices. All countries must be fully committed to prioritising the financing and implementation of enhanced NDCs.
Combatting the climate crisis will require a complete transformation of society

For many countries – but not all – inclusivity is driving ambition. UNDP’s own Climate Promise initiative has contributed to this effort, supporting governments to engage with 110,000+ people reached through 1,260 stakeholder consultations on NDC revision processes.
There must be greater recognition and empowerment of the roles of key change agents. Countries are increasingly engaging the private sector in NDC design and implementation, as they are critical to ensuring sufficient scaled up climate action, but not adequately defining their needs in just transition processes. Gender and youth considerations have also improved significantly in second-generation NDCs, but more needs to be done to capitalise on their potentials – particularly youth as the generation most invested in the call for higher climate ambition.
Let’s find more solutions

The NDC Global Outlook report demonstrates how many developing countries across the world are leading the way for decisive climate action. COP26 must be the moment where all nations rise to the challenge of climate change, especially high-emitters. As the window to limit global warming to 1.5°C narrows, this is our only pathway to secure the future of people and planet.

A “helicopter” view of the climate planning landscape from 2020 to 2050 reveals that the opportunity afforded by NDCs to serve as a blueprint for sustainable development and green recovery is only just beginning to be utilised.

For the most part, NDCs remain focused on sectoral priorities – rather than identifying integrated solutions that target broader systems. They have not been integrated into the green stimulus and recovery plans that countries are putting forth to rebuild their economies after the COVID-19 pandemic. This is a missed opportunity to realign investments from “brown” to “green” and to address the financial barriers hampering scaled-up climate action and ambition.