No one knows with certainty how migration flows and integration trends will develop in the mid-term or long-term. What will drive migration flows in the future? What will integration look like? They are unlikely to be identical to the past, but we don’t have a crystal ball. Even the most sophisticating modelling cannot capture all the relevant drivers.

This report provides policy makers with two guides to migration and integration policy making for the future. The first is an inventory of megatrends already underway and which will transform the environment for policy making. The second identifies weak signals of potential transformations and explores what would happen if these were to become major game changers. The scenarios include technological change; a shift in the very way people think about “integration”; the emergence of new stakeholders in migration and integration policy; and rising importance of non-OECD countries as actors in migration and integration.

Each scenario comprises challenges and opportunities, which depend on how well-prepared States are to address them. No one knows whether any of these scenarios will develop as outlined, but each one is plausible and momentous enough for public authorities to take seriously.