This report takes stock of key developments since the publishing of the independent report A New Climate for Peace commissioned by G7 members. It provides a concise risk horizon scan for 2015 and 2016, and an overview and assessment of key policy developments in 2015 and 2016 that are of relevance for addressing climate‑fragility risks.
In 2015 A New Climate for Peace compiled the evidence that was available about how climate change was interacting with other features of the social, economic and political landscape to contribute, in some places and some cases, to instability, insecurity, low level conflicts and worse. Developments in 2015 and 2016 confirm that assessment.
In regards to climate change, a series of temperature records and the growing number and severity of extreme weather events in 2015 and 2016 illustrate what it might mean to leave the planet’s safe operating space. In parallel we have witnessed an unstable international political context. The Middle East remains in turmoil and neither regional nor global efforts to mitigate the violent conflicts seem to have much effect. The number of armed conflicts has risen back to the level that it was in the early 1990s, blowing away the gains of two decades of peacebuilding efforts. There is a historically high level of refugees and internally displaced people.