Above average temperatures are expected in many parts of the globe in the next few months, even without the presence of a warming El Niño event, according to the World Meteorological Organization.
WMO’s El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Update said that there is a 60% chance of ongoing ENSO-neutral conditions continuing during March-May 2020. The chances for an El Niño or La Niña are 35% and 5% respectively. For the June-August 2020 season, the chance for ENSO-neutral is 55%, that for El Niño is 20-25% and that for La Niña is also 20-25%.
The El Niño/Southern Oscillation is a naturally occurring phenomenon involving fluctuations of ocean surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, coupled with changes in the overlying atmospheric circulation. It has a major influence on weather and climate patterns and is linked to hazards such as heavy rains, floods and drought. El Niño typically has a warming influence on global temperatures, whilst La Niña has the opposite effect.
El Niño and La Niña are not the only naturally occurring phenomena that drive global climate patterns. WMO has therefore introduced a new Global Seasonal Climate Update, currently in a trial phase, which factors in other climate drivers such as the Indian Ocean Dipole.
The Global Seasonal Climate Update said that above average sea surface temperatures are likely across sizeable portions of the globe, both in the tropics and extra-tropics. As a result, the forecast for March-May 2020 leans towards above-normal land temperature, particularly at tropical latitudes.
The global warming trend also contributes to the above-average sea surface temperature and air temperature forecast, it said.