World Cities Report 2022: Envisaging the Future of Cities
Publication year
Resource type
UNCCD Library
External document
Material Type
ebook
World Cities Report 2022: Envisaging the Future of Cities seeks to provide greater clarity and insights into the future of cities based on existing trends, challenges and opportunities, as well as disruptive conditions, including the valuable lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic, and suggest ways that cities can be better prepared to address a wide range of shocks and transition to sustainable urban futures. The Report proposes a state of informed preparedness that provides us with the opportunity to anticipate change, correct the course of action and become more knowledgeable of the different scenarios or possibilities that the future of cities offers.
The Diversity and Vision for the Future of Cities
While the COVID-19 pandemic dominated the two years between editions of the World Cities Report and upended many aspects of urban life, this Report comes at a time when world events create ever more dynamic environments for urban actors. Although of the world has lifted the public health restrictions and border closures that made COVID-19 such a dominant aspect of urban life, the virus continues to flare up periodically and some countries still have strict measures in place. Recently, the world has witnessed a sudden global spike in inflation and cost of living, alongside supply chain disruptions, which is severely affecting the recovery of urban economies. New and persistent armed conflicts have altered the geopolitical order and contributed to global economic uncertainty.
A new harmonized definition, called the Degree of Urbanization, facilitates international comparisons of urbanization. By defining three main classes of human settlements (cities, towns and semi-dense areas, and rural areas), the Degree of Urbanization captures the urban-rural continuum as recommended by research. It provides a pathway to overcoming the fundamental challenge linked to monitoring urban trends and the development agendas that has lingered over the years: the lack of a unified definition of what constitutes “urban” and its precise measurement.
This chapter provides a unique perspective on future trends using Degree of Urbanization and data emanating from this new harmonized approach. Specifically, it provides scenarios that allow us to understand the anticipated demographic and spatial changes across the urban-rural continuum in various regions as well as their drivers.
1. Global city population share doubled from 25 per cent in 1950 to about 50 per cent in 2020; it is projected to slowly increase to 58 per cent over the next 50 years.
2. Between 2020 and 2070, the number of cities in low-income countries will increase by 76 per cent, in high-income and lower-middle-income countries by about 20 per cent, and in uppermiddle-income countries by 6 per cent.
3. Over the next five decades, growth in city land area will mostly take place in low-income(141 per cent), lower-middle-income (44 per cent) and high-income countries (34 per cent). Changes in upper-middle-income countries are projected to be relatively small (13 per cent).
4. Small cities cover almost half of city land (about 45 per cent) in low-income countries, a trend that will persist over the coming decades.
The Diversity and Vision for the Future of Cities
While the COVID-19 pandemic dominated the two years between editions of the World Cities Report and upended many aspects of urban life, this Report comes at a time when world events create ever more dynamic environments for urban actors. Although of the world has lifted the public health restrictions and border closures that made COVID-19 such a dominant aspect of urban life, the virus continues to flare up periodically and some countries still have strict measures in place. Recently, the world has witnessed a sudden global spike in inflation and cost of living, alongside supply chain disruptions, which is severely affecting the recovery of urban economies. New and persistent armed conflicts have altered the geopolitical order and contributed to global economic uncertainty.
A new harmonized definition, called the Degree of Urbanization, facilitates international comparisons of urbanization. By defining three main classes of human settlements (cities, towns and semi-dense areas, and rural areas), the Degree of Urbanization captures the urban-rural continuum as recommended by research. It provides a pathway to overcoming the fundamental challenge linked to monitoring urban trends and the development agendas that has lingered over the years: the lack of a unified definition of what constitutes “urban” and its precise measurement.
This chapter provides a unique perspective on future trends using Degree of Urbanization and data emanating from this new harmonized approach. Specifically, it provides scenarios that allow us to understand the anticipated demographic and spatial changes across the urban-rural continuum in various regions as well as their drivers.
1. Global city population share doubled from 25 per cent in 1950 to about 50 per cent in 2020; it is projected to slowly increase to 58 per cent over the next 50 years.
2. Between 2020 and 2070, the number of cities in low-income countries will increase by 76 per cent, in high-income and lower-middle-income countries by about 20 per cent, and in uppermiddle-income countries by 6 per cent.
3. Over the next five decades, growth in city land area will mostly take place in low-income(141 per cent), lower-middle-income (44 per cent) and high-income countries (34 per cent). Changes in upper-middle-income countries are projected to be relatively small (13 per cent).
4. Small cities cover almost half of city land (about 45 per cent) in low-income countries, a trend that will persist over the coming decades.
Keywords
urbanization
facts and figures
vulnerability
urban areas
demographic change
poverty and inequality