The report is written from the vantage point of international military and security experts, providing a global overview of the security risks of a changing climate, and opportunities for addressing them. It recommends “climate-proofing” international security – including infrastructure, institutions and policies, as well as major emissions reductions to avoid significant-to-catastrophic security threats. It is the first report of its kind.

While there has been progress over the past decades, with militaries and security institutions increasingly analyzing and incorporating climate change risks into their assessments, plans and policies, the “World Climate and Security Report 2020” shows that the risks are increasingly urgent, and more must be done. This contributed to the report’s “Key Risks and Opportunities” findings.

KEY RISKS: Significant or higher risks to global security under current circumstances

1. Water insecurity a global security risk: Climate change-exacerbated water insecurity is already a significant driver of instability, and according to 93% of climate security and military experts surveyed for this report, will pose a significant or higher risk to global security by 2030.
2. All regions facing increase in climate security risks (not just fragile/poor): Though fragile regions of the world are facing the most severe and catastrophic security consequences of climate change, all regions are facing significant or higher security risks due to the global nature of the risks. For example, 86% of climate security and military experts surveyed for this report perceive climate change effects on conflict within nations to present a significant or higher risk to global security in the next two decades.
3. Military institutions are increasingly concerned about climate risks: As reinforced by the 31 nations represented in the International Military Council on Climate and Security (IMCCS), an increasing number of national, regional and international security and military institutions are concerned about, and planning for, climate change risks to military infrastructure, force readiness, military operations, and the broader security environment.
4. Climate mitigation, adaptation and resilience efforts are increasingly urgent to avert the significant security consequences of climate change, yet some proposed solutions such as geoengineering could present negative second-order effects to global security, if not implemented carefully.
5. Rising authoritarianism, sharpened global competition and national agendas are hampering the needed cooperation among nations to address the security risks of climate change.

KEY OPPORTUNITIES: A path forward for global security cooperation on climate change

1. National, regional, and international security institutions and militaries around the world should advance robust climate resilience strategies, plans and investments, especially regarding climate implications for water and food security and their associated effects on stability, conflict and displacement, in their primary mission sets or lines of effort.
2. Security and military institutions should demonstrate leadership on climate security risks and resilience and encourage governments to advance comprehensive emissions reductions and adaptation investments to avoid those security disruptions. Military organizations can also lead by example through taking advantage of the significant opportunities to adopt lower carbon energy sources, and make progress on other greenhouse gases beyond carbon dioxide.
3. Climate-proofing development assistance for vulnerable nations which are likely hotspots of instability and conflict, as well as climate-proofing other policies affecting those regions, should be a priority for conflict prevention. Assistance should be aimed at climate resilience challenges such as water security, food security, and disaster preparedness.
4. The international community should embrace a Responsibility to Prepare and Prevent framework, given unprecedented foresight capabilities regarding the unprecedented risks of climate change. This includes ensuring all levels of government and civil society, including all national, regional and international security institutions, are prepared for the security implications of climate change.
5.Security institutions around the globe should integrate climate knowledge and training into institutional frameworks to ensure that knowledge and understanding of climate change threats permeates the organizational culture. For example, climate security curricula should be added to national and regional training and defense colleges, professional military education, and climate security should receive significant treatment in international security and military fora.

The report is anchored by a contemporary, global survey of the climate security landscape from the vantage point of international military and security expert contributors.On the risks side, the report includes a Global and Regional Risk Overview - a description of the most current knowledge on the intersection of climate change and security at the regional and international level. This section also includes a Climate Security Risk Perception Survey, which is the first survey to assess perceptions of risk among military and security professionals who are concerned about climate change.

Regarding opportunities for addressing those risks, the report includes initial results from a Climate Security Strategic Capability Game - a unique gaming approach that aims to increase awareness about relevant capabilities and capacities that are needed for conflict prevention and response in the context of climate change. Further, the report highlights some best climate security practices among national militaries and national security establishments, as well as intergovernmental security and military institutions, and explores how climate change is being incorporated into defense strategy and policy, and national and international military operations. The report concludes with recommendations for the way forward.

The report clearly shows that climate change is a matter of national and global security. Consequently, the international security community has a responsibility to prepare for and to prevent the security risks of climate change, as well as a responsibility to cooperate to meet this unprecedented thre

The Expert Group of the IMCCS consists of the Center for Climate and Security (CCS), an institute of the Council on Strategic Risks (CSR), the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS), the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) and the Planetary Security Initiative of the Netherlands Institute of International Relations (Clingendael).