Keywords

Filter by

Date

Tags

Topics

Year

A new index aims to change how the world prepares for drought

Drought does not arrive with sirens. It builds quietly—through drying soils, shrinking water supplies and wilting crops—until its impacts ripple across farms, cities and entire economies. By the time it is fully visible, the damage is often already widespread and costly, affecting everything from food and energy production to transportation and health.With droughts projected to affect three in four people worldwide by 2050, and three quarters of the world’s land already permanently drier due to unsustainable land management and climate change, how should countries act to prevent drought from escalating into crisis?Much like the Human Development Index reshaped how countries understand progress, the new Drought Resilience Index aims to provide a clear, shared benchmark to help governments manage drought risk and prevent irreversible impacts—including lost lives and shattered livelihoods.Now under development through the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), the International Drought Resilience Alliance (IDRA) and partners, the index is designed to give decision-makers a clearer picture of where vulnerabilities lie —helping them assess preparedness, create policies and act before drought turns into disaster.A three-day  workshop recently hosted by the European Commission Joint Research Centre in Italy brought together a wide range of international partners—spanning multilateral, scientific, academic, technical, and government institutions—to fine-tune the tool, which is expected to launch as part of a broader AI-powered data visualization platform.We spoke with Edgar Gutiérrez-Espeleta, senior policy consultant at UNCCD advising on the development of the tool, to understand how the Drought Resilience Index works—and why it could reshape how countries prepare for a new drought era. From data overload to clarityThe Drought Resilience Index, part of the broader International Drought Resilience Observatory (IDRO), is designed to turn complex and fragmented data into simple scores that policymakers can use to make decisions. “Drought is one thing. Resilience to drought is another,” says Gutiérrez-Espeleta.  “The aim is to help countries assess their capacity to anticipate, prepare for and adapt to drought, and to highlight where action is most needed so they can use limited resources effectively.”To capture this, the Drought Resilience Index is built around three dimensions: anticipation, preparation and adaptation. These reflect the full lifecycle of drought risk. Each dimension is assessed across four areas that shape resilience: the built environment; the natural environment, including soils, forests and wetlands; communities; and the economy —together offering a multidimensional picture of how well countries manage drought risk.Across each of these areas, experts identify one or two indicators to capture the most critical aspects of resilience, drawing on available, UN-vetted global datasets. These indicators are then standardised and combined into a composite score, enabling countries to assess their capacity to manage drought risk.For example, in anticipation, the health of ecosystems—such as forest cover or watershed integrity—can indicate how well the natural environment buffers drought impacts. In preparation, the efficiency and reach of water supply systems reflect the capacity of the built environment to conserve and distribute scarce resources. In adaptation, the share of livelihoods diversified beyond water-intensive activities shows how well the economy can withstand recurring drought conditions.“Low scores act as warning signals, pointing decision-makers to areas that require urgent attention,” explains Gutiérrez-Espeleta.Built through collaborationThe index is not being developed in isolation. It builds on years of work within the UNCCD’s Science-Policy Interface and has been shaped through consultations with top drought resilience experts from different regions, including the European Union’s Joint Research Centre, the US National Drought Monitor, the World Meteorological Organization and Yale Center for Ecosystems and Architecture.In the lead up to the 17th session of the Conference of the Parties to the UNCCD (UNCCD COP17), specialists are refining the selection of indicators, assessing available datasets and ensuring that the index is both scientifically robust and practical for policymakers.One of the key challenges is data availability. Not all countries have the same level of information, and some indicators may only exist for some parts of the world.“We are starting with the best data currently available and building from there,” Gutiérrez-Espeleta says. “As the index evolves, it will also help drive stronger and more comprehensive data collection, as has been the case with the Human Development Index.”A tool shaped by experienceThe idea for the Drought Resilience Index is rooted in experience. In 2015, as Costa Rica’s Minister of Environment, Gutiérrez-Espeleta faced a severe drought that demanded urgent, cross-sector decisions—but without a clear overview, it was difficult to prioritize action. That gap is what the Index is designed to fill. By bringing diverse data into a single framework that everybody can understand, it helps policymakers identify where systems are weakest and where action is most needed—offering, in his words, “a way to quickly see the big picture.”Rather than prescribing solutions, the Index works as a signal, highlighting where problems are most acute and pointing decision-makers towards the areas that require attention.The ambition is simple. When ministers see it at COP17, Gutiérrez-Espeleta hopes their reaction will be immediate: “This is what we needed.” From there, governments can mobilize resources and act—because while drought cannot be prevented, the vulnerability of people, economies and ecosystems can be greatly reduced.Photo : Participants at the IDRO Drought Resilience Index workshop hosted in Italy by the European Commission Joint Research Centre, including representatives of: Yale Center for Ecosystems and Architecture, National Center for Meteorology of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, World Meteorological Organization, United Nations Environment Programme, United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health, Global Water Partnership, US National Drought Mitigation Center, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, CIMA Research Foundation, Sahara and Sahel Observatory, CSIC-CEBAS, Ministry of Ecological Transition and Demographic Challenge of Spain, Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development of Senegal, Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Deltares, International Rice Research Institute,  IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre, University of Southern Queensland, UNEP-DHI Partnership, Tree Aid.

A new index aims to change how the world prepares for drought
UNCCD COP17 preparations advance in Mongolia

As global pressures on land, food systems and water intensify, preparations for the seventeenth session of the Conference of the Parties (UNCCD COP17) to the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) are entering a critical phase. During a two-day visit to Ulaanbaatar, UNCCD Executive Secretary Yasmine Fouad met with Mongolia’s leadership to advance preparations for COP17, to be held in the Mongolian capital from 17 to 28 August 2026 under the theme “Restoring Land, Restoring Hope.” This engagement comes at a time of mounting global pressure on land and natural resources. Up to 40 per cent of the world’s land is already degraded, undermining food production, water availability and livelihoods. At the same time, droughts have increased by nearly one-third since 2000, placing additional strain on communities, particularly in dryland regions where people depend directly on healthy land for their survival. UNCCD Executive Secretary Dr. Yasmine Fouad meets with Prime Minister of Mongolia H.E. Uchral Nyam-Osor Drought alone already costs the global economy at least USD 300 billion each year, with impacts cascading across food systems, supply chains and livelihoods. From global challenge to national reality In Mongolia, these challenges are not abstract. Nearly 77 per cent of Mongolia’s land is affected by degradation, while increasingly frequent droughts followed by severe winters are placing mounting pressure on pastoral livelihoods, a cornerstone of the economy and a way of life for around one-third of the population. UNCCD Executive Secretary Dr. Yasmine Fouad meets with the Minister for Foreign Affairs of Mongolia  and COP17  President Designate H.E. B. BattsetsegThese pressures reflect broader global trends. Rangelands, which cover more than half of the Earth’s land surface and support around two billion people, are increasingly under strain from climate change and unsustainable land use, with up to half already degraded or at risk. Declining soil fertility, reduced water retention and ecosystem degradation are already affecting food production, incomes and resilience. At the same time, efforts are underway to respond. National initiatives on land restoration, rangeland management and sustainable livestock systems are helping to address these challenges, while showing how environmental sustainability and economic resilience can go hand in hand. A conference focused on delivery Discussions during the visit focused not only on the organization of COP17, but also on ensuring the conference delivers concrete and measurable results. UNCCD and host country teams discuss COP17 preparationsThis includes scaling up investment in land restoration and drought resilience, strengthening sustainable food systems and supporting communities on the frontlines of land degradation. “Healthy land is the foundation of food security, livelihoods and stability,” said UNCCD Executive Secretary Dr. Yasmine Fouad. “Preparations for COP17 are now entering a critical phase. Together with Mongolia, we are working to ensure the conference delivers real results, from scaling up investment in land restoration and drought resilience to strengthening food systems and supporting communities most at risk.” Mongolian authorities also emphasized their commitment to advancing green development and using COP17 as an opportunity to strengthen both national and global action. “Desertification has become an issue that affects the living environment of every citizen of our country. Therefore, the Government of Mongolia will declare green development as a national priority. We will submit the Law on Climate Change to the State Great Khural(Parliament). We will promote our green development policy globally, attract investment, and create new opportunities. We will also accelerate our infrastructure and project development efforts,” said Uchral Nyam-Osor, Prime Minister of Mongolia. Why it matters now Land degradation and drought are increasingly seen as systematic risk multipliers. They intensify competition over land and water, undermine livelihoods and can contribute to displacement and instability. In many parts of the world, these pressures are already linked to rising food insecurity and growing social and economic stress. When land can no longer sustain communities, the impacts are felt across entire systems, from local livelihoods to national stability. Their effects go well beyond the environment, shaping food systems, economic resilience and social cohesion, particularly in regions already under pressure. Addressing these challenges is therefore not only an environmental priority, but also a development and economic one. It is also an investment in stability, helping reduce pressure on scarce resources, strengthen livelihoods and support more resilient communities Looking ahead to COP17 COP17 will bring together governments, financial institutions, scientists, civil society and the private sector to accelerate action on land restoration and drought resilience. Key priorities include scaling up finance, strengthening drought preparedness, advancing sustainable land management and elevating the role of rangelands and pastoral communities, particularly in the context of the International Year of Rangelands and Pastoralists in 2026. As the first of the Rio Conventions COPs in 2026, COP17 comes at a moment when the scale of the challenge is clear, and so is the cost of inaction. The focus now is on turning commitments into results and ensuring that solutions reach the ground. UNCCD team during the recent visit to Mongolia, the host of the next UNCCD COP17In Mongolia, where these challenges are already visible, this ambition is not abstract. It is about what happens next and the legacy of action that COP17 will deliver. For media enquiries  UNCCD Press Office: press@unccd.int   About UNCCD   The United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) is the global vision and voice for land. We unite governments, scientists, policymakers, private sector and communities around a shared vision and global action to restore and manage the world’s land for the sustainability of humanity and the planet. Much more than an international treaty signed by 197 Parties, UNCCD is a multilateral commitment to mitigating today’s impacts of land degradation and advancing tomorrow’s land stewardship to provide food, water, shelter and economic opportunity to all people in an equitable and inclusive manner.

UNCCD COP17 preparations advance in Mongolia
Saudi Arabia’s phenomenal success of restoring a million hectares of desert landscapes

Standing on a rocky stretch just outside Riyadh, the land opens out in every direction, sand, stone and dry air, with little to interrupt it. It is a landscape shaped by scarcity, where water is limited and vegetation survives under pressure. That strain is increasing as temperatures rise and rainfall becomes more unpredictable.This pressure is not unique to Saudi Arabia. Globally, land degradation is accelerating. It affects up to 40 per cent of the land globally and puts nearly half of humanity at risk, even as countries have committed to restoring one billion hectares by 2030.In this context, Saudi Arabia, in just four years, has restored its first one million hectares of degraded land under the Saudi Green Initiative, its national programme launched as part of Vision 2030 to scale up land restoration, increase vegetation cover and strengthen ecosystem resilience.What makes this milestone relevant beyond the country are its scale, and where and how it was delivered.The challenges, where restoration is happening and how it is being doneThe restored land is not located in a single area. It spans multiple regions and ecosystems, including the King Salman bin Abdulaziz Royal Reserve, the Imam Abdulaziz bin Mohammed Royal Reserve, Sharaan Nature Reserve in AlUla and Qassim National Park, among others.These areas vary in their ecological conditions and land-use pressures. They include landscapes under stress and protected areas undergoing active rehabilitation. Working across such varied conditions requires a structured approach. In Saudi Arabia, restoration efforts are guided by ecological assessments that determine what each landscape can sustain. Native species are used to improve survival rates, while water use is carefully managed to reduce pressure on already limited resources.Restoration is supported by complementary measures, including expanding protected areas, improving early warning systems for sand and dust storms, and strengthening climate adaptation tools.Equally important is how results are verified. Satellite monitoring, geographic information systems and field inspections are combined to assess changes in vegetation cover, soil stability and land productivity.This makes it possible to track progress consistently and helps build confidence that restoration efforts are delivering tangible ecological outcomes.Going to scale and linking national action to global targetsThe scale of land degradation has led to global targets that are equally ambitious. Through the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), countries are committed to restoring one billion hectares of degraded land by 2030. To advance these global commitments, the Group of 20 countries (G20) through the Global Land Initiative hosted by UNCCD, is committed to reducing degraded land by 50 per cent by 2040, underscoring the importance of scaling restoration across all ecosystems. Through this initiative, countries are promoting large-scale restoration, exchanging practical experiences across different contexts and engaging the private sector to mobilize the required investments.Saudi Arabia’s progress provides one example of how to restore land at scale across different landscapes, including in environments where water scarcity and climate conditions make recovery more complex. UNCCD Executive Secretary Dr Yasmine Fouad notes: “The priority now is scaling what works. What this experience shows is that restoration can be delivered across vastly different landscapes, including in water-scarce environments, when it is supported by the right policies, science and long-term commitment. This is essential if global targets are to be met.”This work also draws on approaches supported by UNCCD, including monitoring frameworks, tracking land degradation in real time and knowledge-sharing across countries.Restoring land brings a wide range of benefits. Improved land productivity, more stable soils and restored vegetation help communities withstand drought, protect livelihoods and reduce long-term risks linked to land degradation. In many of these areas, restoration is closely linked to livelihoods, particularly in rangelands where land conditions directly affect pastoral communities. By engaging the private sector, there is growing momentum to create new jobs built on a budding restoration industry. Carrying momentum forwardSaudi Arabia hosted the sixteenth session of the Conference of the Parties (COP16) to the UNCCD in Riyadh in December 2024, where countries called for scaling up action on land restoration, strengthening drought resilience and increasing investment. Often, the vital role COP hosting plays in mobilizing political will to restore land at country level is often underestimated. The COP16 shift and momentum from commitment to implementation is expected to continue at COP17, which will take place in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, from 17 to 28 August 2026.The challenge now is less about identifying solutions and more about applying them at scale across different regions and ecosystems.Restoring land in arid environments is complex. Limited water availability, long recovery periods and the need for sustained monitoring mean that results depend on long-term commitment.What this experience makes clear is that restoration is already moving from commitment to implementation, including in the most constrained environments, and bringing with it multiple benefits – from jobs and livelihoods to resilience, long-term stability and security.

Saudi Arabia’s phenomenal success of restoring a million hectares of desert landscapes